Match Info

Paulista - Round 1

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Referee: Murilo V. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Velo Clube		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.63	Watch
	2.82	3	2.52
	2.87	2.96	2.65	Watch
	2.7	2.88	2.5
	2.82	3.07	2.69
	2.75	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (2.83)	2.99 ↑ (2.91)	2.62 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Velo Clube
33.4%

Draw
31.2%

Botafogo SP
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

31.7%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Velo Clube has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Velo Clube - Botafogo SP Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Botafogo SP (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcelo Carne (G) 2. Ynaia 3. Mancha 4. Betao 6. Caique 5. Marcelo Augusto (C) 8. Mateus Norton 7. Luiz Otavio 10. Sillas 11. Joao Lucas 9. Lucas Duni	1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Jonathan 3. Ericson (C) 4. Vilar 6. Gabriel Inocencio 5. Maciel L. 8. Everton Morelli 7. Hygor 10. Rafael Gava 11. Jefferson Nem 9. Leo Gamalho
Substitutes
23. Adriano Jr 20. Daniel Amorim 13. Islan 19. Jhoninha 21. Karl 22. Leo Steffen (G) 14. Lucas Mingoti 12. Paulo V. (G) 17. Rodrigo 18. Rodrigo Alves 15. Ruan 16. Ze Mario	25. Brenno Klippel (G) 14. Carlao 15. Guilherme Mariano 19. Guilherme Queiroz 30. Henrique L. T. 17. Marcio Maranhao 20. Marquinho 16. Matheus Sales 29. Thalles 28. Tortello 27. Yuri Felipe
Coaches
Pintado	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Everton Morelli 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Lucas Duni ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
58', Joao Lucas ↓, Rodrigo Alves ↑,
58', Mancha 🟨,
68', Hygor ↓, Thalles ↑,
69', Leo Gamalho ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
72', Mateus Norton ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
77', Rafael Gava ↓, Marquinho ↑,
77', Caique ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
77', Sillas ↓, Jhoninha ↑,
90', 🟥,

Preview

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Jeferson (Injury) Matheus Sales (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Velo Clube won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Velo Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Velo Clube - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
19.02.25	Guarani - Velo Clube	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Velo Clube - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
13.02.25	São Paulo - Velo Clube	3:3 ✺
08.02.25	Botafogo SP - Velo Clube	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 WTWTL
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
23.11.25	Botafogo SP - Avaí	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Criciúma - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
10.11.25	Botafogo SP - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
03.11.25	Volta Redonda - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
24.10.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.25	Botafogo SP - Velo Clube	1:0
Brazilian Copa Paulista
19.10.21	Botafogo SP - Velo Clube	2:0

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