Match Info

Paulista - Round 4

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano (Rio Claro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Velo Clube		Guarani

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3	3.3
	2.35	2.88	3.3
	2.46	2.66	3.55	Watch
	2.38	2.63	3.2
	2.34	2.66	3.38
	2.37	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.22)	2.8 ↓ (2.86)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Velo Clube
39.2%

Draw
33.1%

Guarani
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

32.1%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Velo Clube has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Velo Clube - Guarani Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guarani (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcelo Carne (G) 3. Mancha 5. Marcelo Augusto (C) 4. Betao 2. Ynaia 8. Mateus Norton 7. Luiz Otavio 6. Ze Mario 11. Rodrigo Alves 9. Daniel Amorim 10. Sillas	1. Caique Franca (G) 3. Raphael 13. Mauricio Antonio 4. Jonathan Costa 6. Emerson Barbosa 8. Nathan Melo 5. Willian Farias (C) 11. Mirandinha 10. Isaque 7. Guilherme Parede 9. Maranhao
Substitutes
23. Adriano Jr 16. Caique 13. Islan 19. Jhoninha 20. Joao Lucas 21. Karl 22. Leo Steffen (G) 14. Lucas Mingoti 12. Paulo V. (G) 17. Rodrigo 18. Ruan 15. Thomas Luciano	2. Cicinho 17. Dentinho 20. Diego Torres 22. Fabricio Dias 18. Guilherme Cachoeira 21. Kaua Jesus 23. Kewen 19. Lucca 12. Mateus Claus (G) 15. Povoa M. 14. Ralf 16. Renan Castro
Coaches
Pintado	Elano

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Emerson Barbosa 🟨,
18', Nathan Melo 🟨,
28', Rodrigo Alves 🟨,
30', Betao 🟨,
42', Mancha 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Guilherme Parede (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodrigo Alves ↓, Karl ↑,
56', Raphael 🟨,
58', Mirandinha ↓, Dentinho ↑,
59', Emerson Barbosa ↓, Renan Castro ↑,
63', Luiz Otavio ↓, Adriano Jr ↑,
63', Mancha ↓, Jhoninha ↑,
65', Mateus Norton 🟨,
71', Raphael ↓, Cicinho ↑,
72', Maranhao ↓, Kewen ↑,
75', Jonathan Costa 🟨,
75', Daniel Amorim (Penalty Awarded),
81', Isaque ↓, Diego Torres ↑,
81', Sillas ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
82', Mateus Norton ↓, Caique ↑,
90+2', Renan Castro 🟨,

Preview

Velo Clube could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Guarani: Igor Pereira (Injury)

There are questionable in Guarani: Rian (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Velo Clube won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Guarani - the odds 3.45 are the expected chance of winning is 26.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Velo Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.01.26	Portuguesa - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Ponte Preta - Velo Clube	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Velo Clube - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Velo Clube - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
19.02.25	Guarani - Velo Clube	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LWTWT
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.01.26	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
13.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Guarani - EC Primavera	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
11.10.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	Guarani - Velo Clube	1:1

Velo Clube - Guarani: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide