Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 4

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)


	Venados		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.33	5.25
	1.82	3.85	3.5
	1.85	4.08	3.74
	2.82	4.01	2.15	Watch
	1.44	4.4	5.5
	1.85	3.82	3.57
	1.63	4.3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.6)	4.11 ↑ (4.1)	3.96 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
52.3%

Draw
23.4%

Atlético La Paz
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

21.8%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Venados - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Reyes D. (G) 12. Acosta C. 7. Calero J. 2. Casillas J. 8. Dominguez A. 4. Grijalva A. 10. Guzman W. 5. Miranda J. 15. Navarrete D. 25. Trejo Castro M. A. 33. Vidrio N. (C)	23. Estrada J. (G) 92. Alvarez D. 10. Barragan M. (C) 5. Bass A. 16. Del Aguila Y. 27. Garcia G. 25. Illescas F. 12. Millan O. 15. Torres H. 2. Vazquez S. 28. Zurita Jimenez U.
Substitutes
18. Amador K. 143. Benitez S. 19. Catalan A. 28. Delgado A. (G) 16. Espinosa E. 3. Levin J. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 11. Madrid W. 22. Sancho J.	13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 33. Alcala G. (G) 22. Flores R. 14. Galindo A. 8. Gutierrez L. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 11. Renteria R.
Coaches
Esparza R.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
1', Torres H. 🟨,
6', Vidrio N. 🟨,
11', 0 - 1, Millan O. ⚽,
31', Miranda J. 🟨,
36', Dominguez A. 🟨,
38', 0 - 2, Barragan M. (Pen),
42', 1 - 2, Calero J. ⚽,
45+2', Bass A. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 3, Millan O. ⚽, Estrada J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Acosta C. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
46', Grijalva A. ↓, Catalan A. ↑,
49', 2 - 3, Guzman W. ⚽,
55', Bass A. ↓, Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↑,
60', 3 - 3, Calero J. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
61', Trejo Castro M. A. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
61', Miranda J. ↓, Amador K. ↑,
66', Amador K. 🟨,
67', Del Aguila Y. ↓, Flores R. ↑,
67', Alvarez D. ↓, Galindo A. ↑,
79', Illescas F. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
80', Navarrete D. ↓, Madrid W. ↑,
80', Millan O. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
86', Hernandez D. 🟨,
90+4', Madrid W. 🟨,
90+7', Zurita Jimenez U. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 2.

In this match, Venados is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Venados won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Venados won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
16.08.25	Dorados - Venados	1:0 ✺
08.08.25	Venados - Tapatío	1:3 ✺
01.08.25	Irapuato - Venados	4:1 ✺
27.04.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	2:0 ✺
24.04.25	Venados - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.08.25	Atlético La Paz - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:2 ✺
08.08.25	Atlético La Paz - Correcaminos UAT	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Tapatío - Atlético La Paz	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	4:1 ✺
11.04.25	Atlético La Paz - Dorados	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.02.25	Venados - Atlético La Paz	2:1
23.08.24	Atlético La Paz - Venados	1:1
27.04.24	Venados - Atlético La Paz	2:3
24.04.24	Atlético La Paz - Venados	3:1
09.04.24	Atlético La Paz - Venados	0:1
12.11.23	Venados - Atlético La Paz	1:0
11.08.23	Venados - Atlético La Paz	1:3

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