Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo (Venice)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Venezia		Spezia

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.2	4	Watch
	2.02	3.15	3.65
	2.29	3.2	3.62
	1.06	10.98	25.70	Watch
	2.09	3.32	3.69	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.55)	4.52 ↑ (3.2)	7.22 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venezia
58.2%

Draw
25.7%

Spezia
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

28.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

28.3%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Venezia's performance.

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spezia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-21.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Venezia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+18%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spezia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Venezia - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Venezia will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Venezia: 66.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Venezia (3.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Venezia will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Venezia (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stankovic F. (G) 3. Schingtienne J. 16. Venturi M. 33. Sverko M. 21. Compagnon M. 71. Perez K. 8. Doumbia I. 6. Busio G. (C) 5. Haps R. 9. Adorante A. 19. Bjarkason B.	12. Mascardi D. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 55. Hristov P. (C) 37. Mateju A. 23. Candela A. 5. Esposito Sa. 80. Kouda R. 32. Vignali L. 11. Beruatto P. 27. Soleri E. 20. Di Serio G.
Substitutes
37. Bohinen E. 80. Casas A. 7. Fila D. 18. Hainaut A. 2. Korac S. 24. Lella N. 99. Pietrelli A. 22. Plizzari A. (G) 20. Sagrado R. 48. Sidibe A. 30. Svoboda M. 10. Yeboah J.	9. Artistico G. 31. Aurelio G. 29. Cassata F. 15. Cistana A. 6. Fellipe Jack 34. Judd M. 10. Lapadula G. 16. Loria L. (G) 8. Nagy A. 26. Onofri M. 1. Sarr M. (G) 99. Vlahovic V.
Coaches
Stroppa G.	D'Angelo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Vignali L. 🟥,
9', Perez K. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Adorante A. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Compagnon M. ↓, Hainaut A. ↑,
46', Venturi M. ↓, Korac S. ↑,
54', 2 - 0, Korac S. ⚽, Bjarkason B. (A),
56', Soleri E. ↓, Artistico G. ↑,
56', Di Serio G. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
66', Hristov P. 🟨,
67', Beruatto P. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
67', Kouda R. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
70', Adorante A. ↓, Fila D. ↑,
72', Haps R. ↓, Bohinen E. ↑,
82', Candela A. ↓, Lapadula G. ↑,
83', Schingtienne J. ↓, Svoboda M. ↑,
89', Cassata F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venezia won 1.

In recent matches, Venezia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Spezia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Venezia has had a series of away games.

Venezia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Venezia: Conde C. (Broken Leg) Duncan A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Inactive) Candelari P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Venezia: Franjic B. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Venezia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Venezia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.6:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venezia FC
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Verona - Venezia	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Venezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Pescara - Venezia	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Rapid Wien - Venezia	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
30.08.25	Juve Stabia - Venezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTTT
- Spezia Calcio
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Parma - Spezia	3:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Spezia - Juve Stabia	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Spezia - Carrarese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
10.05.24	Spezia - Venezia	2:1
15.09.23	Venezia - Spezia	1:0
Coppa Italia
14.08.23	Spezia - Venezia	3:2 penalties
Italian Serie A
02.04.22	Spezia - Venezia	1:0
19.09.21	Venezia - Spezia	1:2
Italian Serie B
17.07.20	Spezia - Venezia	0:1
14.12.19	Venezia - Spezia	0:0

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