Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 28

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Referee: Ayroldi G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	215 DAZN Zona, DAZN 2, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 3, ART Sport 3
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport Football
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 4
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Como		Venezia

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	5.5	Watch
	1.57	3.8	6.25
	1.68	3.7	5.4
	1.65	3.85	6.17
	1.65	3.7	5.82	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.5
	1.64	4	5.88	Watch
	1.7	3.75	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.63)	3.79 ↓ (4)	5.75 ↑ (5.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Como
58.2%

Draw
25.2%

Venezia
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

23.9%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

17.5%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Como has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Venezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Como that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Venezia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97.5%	1.6%	0.8%

Como - Venezia Predictions

Users Predictions: Como will win (119 of 122 users predict this - 97.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 94.79% – 100%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Butez J. (G) 28. Smolcic I. 5. Goldaniga E. 15. Fellipe Jack 41. Valle A. 80. Caqueret M. 23. Perrone M. 33. Da Cunha L. (C) 7. Strefezza G. 79. Paz N. 38. Diao A.	28. Radu I. (G) 25. Schingtienne J. 4. Idzes J. (C) 2. Cande F. 24. Zerbin A. 32. Duncan A. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 71. Perez K. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 11. Oristanio G. 99. Maric M.
Substitutes
8. Alli D. 27. Braunoder M. 10. Cutrone P. 13. Dossena A. 11. Douvikas A. 26. Engelhardt Y. 16. Fadera A. 9. Gabrielloni A. 19. Ikone J. 6. Iovine A. 18. Moreno A. 25. Reina P. (G) 77. Van der Brempt I. 22. Vigorito M. (G)	19. Bjarkason B. 6. Busio G. 79. Carboni F. 17. Conde C. 97. Doumbia I. 80. El Haddad S. 18. Fila D. 23. Grandi M. (G) 9. Gytkjaer C. 5. Haps R. 1. Joronen J. (G) 16. Marcandalli A. 10. Yeboah J. 7. Zampano F.
Coaches
Fabregas C.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Zerbin A. 🟨,
8', Duncan A. 🟨,
34', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fellipe Jack ↓, Dossena A. ↑,
46', Strefezza G. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Ikone J. ⚽,
63', Duncan A. ↓, Doumbia I. ↑,
63', Ellertsson M. E. ↓, Bjarkason B. ↑,
63', Oristanio G. ↓, Yeboah J. ↑,
73', Diao A. ↓, Douvikas A. ↑,
76', Maric M. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
77', Zerbin A. ↓, Carboni F. ↑,
79', Douvikas A. 🟨,
81', Yeboah J. 🟨,
86', Paz N. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
86', Da Cunha L. ↓, Engelhardt Y. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Gytkjaer C. (Pen),

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Como won 2.

Recent matches Como is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Venezia is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Como is a favorite.

There will not play in Como: Kempf M. O. (Red Card) Vojvoda M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Venezia: Stankovic F. (Injury) Svoboda M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Como: Azon I. (Calf Injury) Roberto S. (Injury) Van der Brempt I. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Venezia: Crnigoj D. (Injury) Haps R. (Foot Injury) Sagrado R. (Thigh Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Como won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:13 (average 1.5:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Como won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:3 (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Como
Italian Serie A
02.03.25	Roma - Como	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	Como - Napoli	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Fiorentina - Como	0:2 ✺
07.02.25	Como - Juventus	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Bologna - Como	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWWLL
- Venezia FC
Italian Serie A
01.03.25	Atalanta - Venezia	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Venezia - Lazio	0:0 ✺
17.02.25	Genoa - Venezia	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Venezia - Roma	0:1 ✺
01.02.25	Udinese - Venezia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.12.24	Venezia - Como	2:2
Italian Serie B
03.03.24	Como - Venezia	2:1
20.08.23	Venezia - Como	3:0
01.04.23	Venezia - Como	3:2
06.11.22	Como - Venezia	1:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
08.02.17	Como - Venezia	1:2 ET
Italian Serie C Group A
07.02.15	Venezia - Como	0:0

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