Match Info

Coppa Italia - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Parma		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.82	3.45	4.7	Watch
	1.86	3.5	4.96
	1.85	3.36	4.45	Watch
	1.87	3.42	4.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.65)	3.41 ↓ (3.6)	4.76 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
52%

Draw
28%

Spezia
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

26.6%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

25.5%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Parma's form might have worsened.

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Parma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Spezia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.2%	0%	4.8%

Parma - Spezia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Parma (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Parma will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Parma will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Suzuki Z. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 37. Troilo M. 3. Ndiaye A. 27. Britschgi S. 8. Estevez N. 24. Ordonez C. 22. Sorensen O. 18. Lovik M. 7. Benedyczak A. 9. Pellegrino M.	1. Sarr M. (G) 26. Onofri M. 15. Cistana A. 6. Fellipe Jack 32. Vignali L. (C) 29. Cassata F. 8. Nagy A. 34. Comotto C. 31. Aurelio G. 9. Artistico G. 99. Vlahovic V.
Substitutes
11. Almqvist P. 19. Begic T. 10. Bernabe A. 75. Cardinali A. 39. Circati A. 40. Corvi E. (G) 32. Cutrone P. 72. D'Intino R. 16. Keita M. 76. Mikolajewski D. 21. Oristanio G. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 63. Trabucchi N. 14. Valeri E.	11. Beruatto P. 23. Candela A. 20. Di Serio G. 5. Esposito Sa. 55. Hristov P. 80. Kouda R. 10. Lapadula G. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 37. Mateju A. 27. Soleri E.
Coaches
Cuesta C.	D'Angelo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Britschgi S. ⚽,
36', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Aurelio G. ⚽, Vignali L. (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Pellegrino M. ⚽, Benedyczak A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Del Prato E. ↓, Circati A. ↑,
46', Sorensen O. ↓, Plicco E. ↑,
57', Artistico G. ↓, Lapadula G. ↑,
57', Cassata F. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
70', Aurelio G. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
70', Vignali L. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
70', Estevez N. ↓, Keita M. ↑,
73', Benedyczak A. ↓, Cutrone P. ↑,
76', Plicco E. 🟥,
80', Onofri M. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
80', Pellegrino M. ↓, Bernabe A. ↑,
82', 2 - 2, Lapadula G. ⚽, Comotto C. (A),
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Soleri E. (Pen),
1, Cutrone P. (Pen),
2, Kouda R. (Pen),
2, Ndiaye A. (Pen),
3, Vlahovic V. (Pen),
3, Bernabe A. (Pen),
4, Lapadula G. (Pen),
4, Circati A. (Pen),
5, Fellipe Jack (Pen),
5, Ordonez C. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Spezia has had a series of home games.

In this match, Parma is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Parma won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Parma won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Cremonese - Parma	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Cagliari - Parma	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Parma - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Juventus - Parma	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Parma - Pescara	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLTLW
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Spezia - Juve Stabia	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Spezia - Carrarese	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Spezia - Sampdoria	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.04.24	Parma - Spezia	2:0
02.12.23	Spezia - Parma	0:1
Italian Serie A
27.02.21	Spezia - Parma	2:2
25.10.20	Parma - Spezia	2:2
Italian Serie B
18.05.18	Spezia - Parma	0:2
27.12.17	Parma - Spezia	0:0

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