Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 13

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Vigor Senigallia		Recanatese

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.35
	1.79	3.50	4.05	Watch
	1.75	3.58	4.56
	1.76	3.45	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.05)	3.48 ↑ (3.35)	4.29 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vigor Senigallia
52.3%

Draw
26.3%

Recanatese
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

26.8%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

26.4%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vigor Senigallia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vigor Senigallia's performance.

Recanatese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Recanatese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vigor Senigallia than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vigor Senigallia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Recanatese than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Recanatese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vigor Senigallia - Recanatese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Vigor Senigallia (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Braconi L. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, D'Angelo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Vigor Senigallia is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vigor Senigallia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Vigor Senigallia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vigor Senigallia
Italian Serie D - Group F
16.11.25	Ancona - Vigor Senigallia	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Vigor Senigallia - San Marino Calcio	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	L Aquila - Vigor Senigallia	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vigor Senigallia - Termoli	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Sammaurese - Vigor Senigallia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWLTW
- USD Recanatese 1923
Italian Serie D - Group F
16.11.25	Recanatese - Chieti	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Giulianova - Recanatese	4:1 ✺
02.11.25	Recanatese - Castelfidardo	3:1 ✺
26.10.25	UniPomezia - Recanatese	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Atletico Ascoli - Recanatese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
23.03.25	Recanatese - Vigor Senigallia	1:0
10.11.24	Vigor Senigallia - Recanatese	0:0

Vigor Senigallia - Recanatese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide