Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 30

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Vila Nova		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.82	3.4	Watch
	2.4	2.82	3.25
	2.42	2.94	3.5
	1.44	3.99	8.14	Watch
	2.45	2.85	3.24	Watch
	2.37	3.05	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.37)	3.08 ↑ (3.05)	4.09 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
44%

Draw
32%

Criciúma
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.3%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Criciúma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vila Nova that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Criciúma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	44.4%	44.4%

Vila Nova - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Criciúma will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Criciúma (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat 4. Weverton 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 8. Ralf (C) 27. Igor Henrique 29. Junior Todinho 9. Gabriel Poveda 77. Guilherme Parede	1. Alisson (G) 6. Marcinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 13. Jonathan 5. Matheus Trindade 25. Guilherme Lobo 10. Jhonata Robert 88. Luiz Henrique 9. Nicolas 77. Diego Goncalves
Substitutes
7. Andre Luis 20. Bruno Mendes 33. Bruno Xavier 10. Dodo 18. Gustavo Paje 6. Higor 17. Jean Mota 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 23. Nathan Melo 14. Pedro Romano 11. Vinicius Paiva 21. Walisson Maia	19. Borasi B. 7. Fellipe Mateus 95. Georgemy (G) 37. Hiago Alves 20. Jean Carlos 21. Joao Carlos 68. Jota 50. Juninho 15. Leo Mana 18. Leo Naldi 34. Lucas Dias 39. Thales
Coaches
Paulo Turra	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Junior Todinho ⚽, Joao Vieira (A),
16', Nicolas ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
36', Rodrigo 🟨,
43', Joao Vieira 🟨,
45', Jhonata Robert 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Luiz Henrique ↓, Hiago Alves ↑,
46', Matheus Trindade ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Diego Goncalves ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
66', Gabriel Poveda ↓, Bruno Mendes ↑,
66', Igor Henrique ↓, Dodo ↑,
66', Hiago Alves 🟨,
74', Jhonata Robert ↓, Thales ↑,
75', Jonathan ↓, Lucas Dias ↑,
82', Weverton 🟥,
84', Joao Vieira ↓, Jean Mota ↑,
84', Guilherme Parede ↓, Pedro Romano ↑,
85', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
88', Junior Todinho ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
90+7', Elias 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 1.

In recent matches, Vila Nova has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Criciúma is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vila Nova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Criciúma: Caue (Inactive) Felipinho (Red Card) Heitor Roca (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Arilson (Inactive) Emerson Urso (Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Kaua Moroso (Back Injury) Leo Alaba (Injury) Leo Naldi (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Vila Nova - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.96%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
24.09.25	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Athletico Paranaense - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Vila Nova - Remo	1:1 ✺
08.09.25	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLTT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
29.09.25	Criciúma - Atlético Tubarão	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Criciúma - Paysandu	2:4 ✺
25.09.25	Coritiba - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Criciúma - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
20.09.25	Atlético Tubarão - Criciúma	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.06.25	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0
22.08.23	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0
12.05.23	Vila Nova - Criciúma	0:0
04.10.22	Vila Nova - Criciúma	1:0
25.06.22	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0
01.10.19	Vila Nova - Criciúma	1:1
08.06.19	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:1

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