The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Náutico Capibaribe 33.9%
Draw 29.9%
Vila Nova 36.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.9%
29.1%
31%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.6%
28.9%
31.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.
Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vila Nova's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
66.7%
33.3%
Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 15. Leo Indio 46. Gustavo Henrique 23. Igor Fernandes 9. Paulo Sergio 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 7. Vinicius 19. Kaua Maranhao 10. Jean Carlos (C)
1. Helton Leite (G) 22. Hayner 4. Douglas Mendes 23. Jonathan Costa 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 15. Dudu 17. Everton Galdino 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 49. Dellatorre
Substitutes
5. Auremir 72. Derek 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 13. Indio 16. Luiz Claudio 27. Luiz Felipe 60. Luiz Paulo 22. Nunez P. 93. Reginaldo 6. Ryan Carlos 11. Victor Andrade 34. Wanderson
14. Anderson Jesus 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 21. Higor Meritao 16. Igor Carius 9. Lincoln 20. Nathan Camargo 11. Ryan 3. Tiago Pagnussat 8. Willian Maranhao
Coaches
Bruno Pivetti
Guto Ferreira
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Everton Galdino ⚽,
37', Joao Vieira 🟨,
38', Vinicius 🟨,
43', 0 - 2, Janderson ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dudu ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
46', Samuel Felix ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
54', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
57', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Ryan Carlos ↑,
57', Kaua Maranhao ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
60', Higor Meritao 🟨,
66', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
69', Douglas Mendes 🟨,
70', Douglas Mendes ↓, Tiago Pagnussat ↑,
70', Joao Vieira ↓, Willian Maranhao ↑,
72', Willian Maranhao 🟨,
75', Paulo Sergio ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
80', Everton Galdino ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
90+1', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Nathan Camargo ↑,
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 13th and 2nd in the Promotion - Serie A Betano).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1.
Náutico has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Vila Nova is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Náutico may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Vila Nova: Breno Augusto
(Knee Injury)
Higor
(Yellow Cards)
Rafa Silva
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Vila Nova: Jonathan Costa
(Inactive).
In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Náutico has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:14 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Náutico against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 11:7 goals (averaging 1.8:1.2 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Vila Nova FC
35
18
8
9
50:36
14
62
15
Nautico
35
11
10
14
39:46
-7
43
Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now
Vila Nova FC: 13.37%
Last Results with these Odds
Vila Nova - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
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Muriel Becker (G) 
Guruceaga G. (G) 
Nunez P. 
