Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Náutico Capibaribe		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.10	3.30	Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.20
	2.35	3.25	2.95
	2.19	3.23	3.28	Watch
	2.24	3.24	3.09
	2.12	3.10	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.33)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	3.19 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
42%

Draw
29.1%

Vila Nova
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.1%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

28.9%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 13th and 1st in the Promotion - Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1.

Náutico has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Vila Nova is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Náutico has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:14 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Náutico against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 11:7 goals (averaging 1.8:1.2 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Vila Nova FC: 22.76% Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Vila Nova - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
02.10.26	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
21.09.26	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0 ✺
15.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	3:3 ✺
09.09.26	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLTL
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
07.10.26	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
03.10.26	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
25.09.26	Vila Nova - Londrina	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3
Copa do Brasil
09.03.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	1:2
06.05.22	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
10.09.21	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
15.06.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	2:0
18.11.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	1:2

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