Match Info

Serie B - Round 31

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Botafogo SP		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.00	3.10	Watch
	2.45	2.95	2.90
	2.48	3.05	2.90	Watch
	2.55	3.06	3.17
	2.47	2.99	3.08	Watch
	2.45	3.00	3.10
	2.40	3.29	3.05	Watch
	2.44	2.95	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.48)	3.04 ↓ (3.05)	3.04 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
38.2%

Draw
30.9%

Vila Nova
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

30.5%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

30.9%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Botafogo SP - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 31. Pedro Henrique 3. Ericson 4. Vilar 6. Patrick Brey (C) 8. Everton Morelli 5. Leandro Maciel 16. Matheus Sales 10. Rafael Gava 30. Ze Hugo 9. Hygor	1. Helton Leite (G) 22. Hayner 4. Douglas Mendes 3. Tiago Pagnussat 6. Higor 5. Joao Vieira 15. Dudu 17. Everton Galdino 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 7. Andre Luis
Substitutes
18. Arthur Caike 27. Darlan 26. Felipe Vieira 22. Gabriel Inocencio 17. Guilherme Queiroz 21. Jadson 2. Jonathan 12. Jordan (G) 7. Kelvin 29. Thiago Moraes 23. Wesley Santos 20. Yuri Felipe	14. Anderson Jesus 33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 21. Higor Meritao 9. Lincoln 20. Nathan Camargo 11. Ryan 13. Willian Formiga 8. Willian Maranhao
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Marquinhos Gabriel 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Janderson ⚽, Hayner (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Everton Galdino ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
68', Matheus Sales ↓, Kelvin ↑,
68', Ze Hugo ↓, Wesley Santos ↑,
70', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
70', Andre Luis ↓, Lincoln ↑,
70', Hayner 🟨,
73', Joao Vieira 🟨,
74', Leandro Maciel 🟨,
79', Ericson 🟨,
86', Janderson ↓, Dodo ↑,
86', Joao Vieira ↓, Willian Formiga ↑,
87', Pedro Henrique ↓, Gabriel Inocencio ↑,
87', Leandro Maciel ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
88', Rafael Gava ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 16th and 2nd in the Promotion - Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Botafogo SP (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Vila Nova is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Botafogo SP may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Botafogo SP: Carlao (Knee Injury) Erik Rebello (Injury) Guilherme Mariano (Muscle Injury) Jefferson Nem (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Vila Nova: Breno Augusto (Knee Injury) Dellatorre (Muscle Injury) Rafa Silva (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Vila Nova: Anderson Jesus (Inactive).

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:11 (averaging 0.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Botafogo SP against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:4 goals (averaging 0.8:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Last Results with these Odds

Vila Nova - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.05%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
29.09.26	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
14.09.26	Botafogo SP - Goiás	1:3 ✺
09.09.26	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
03.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WTLLL
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
25.09.26	Vila Nova - Londrina	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
10.09.26	Vila Nova - Goiás	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.06.26	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:0
25.08.25	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	2:0
20.04.25	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	2:0
28.09.24	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:1
16.06.24	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	1:0
11.10.23	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	3:1
24.06.23	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	0:3

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