Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 19 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.3
	3.6	3	2.17
	3.05	2.95	2.3
	3.25	3.1	2.41
	3.2	2.9	2.25
	3.46	3.04	2.21	Watch
	3.1	3	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (3.51)	3.01 ↓ (3.22)	2.28 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
28.5%

Draw
30.8%

Vitoria Guimarães
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

28.2%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

27.1%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	8.3%	91.7%

Vilafranquense - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches Vilafranquense is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guimarães is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Vilafranquense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Guimarães have a series of home games.

In this match Guimarães is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
11.11.22	Torreense - Vilafranquense	0:1 ✺
05.11.22	Vilafranquense - Tondela	1:1 ✺
31.10.22	Estrela da Amadora - Vilafranquense	1:1 ✺
23.10.22	Vilafranquense - Académico de Viseu	1:3 ✺
19.10.22	Nacional - Vilafranquense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTTLT
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Vizela	2:1 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
05.11.22	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0 ✺
31.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	3:2 ✺
23.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Boavista	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
15.12.16	Vitoria Guimarães - Vilafranquense	1:0

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