Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 12

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Tondela

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.87	4.33
	2.05	3	3.4
	2.07	3.1	3.4
	2.1	3.1	3.55
	2.3	3.1	3.62
	2.05	3	3.5
	2.04	3.25	3.45
	2.06	3.05	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.38)	3.06 ↓ (3.15)	3.59 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
44.3%

Draw
30.1%

Tondela
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

28.6%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

29.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vilafranquense's performance.

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tondela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tondela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.1%	43.5%	17.4%

Vilafranquense - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Vilafranquense will win (votes: 9 - 39.1%). Tondela will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 43.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 63.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 5 and 8).

Vilafranquense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Tondela is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
31.10.22	Estrela da Amadora - Vilafranquense	1:1 ✺
23.10.22	Vilafranquense - Académico de Viseu	1:3 ✺
19.10.22	Nacional - Vilafranquense	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.10.22	Moreirense - Vilafranquense	3:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
08.10.22	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLTLL
- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
30.10.22	Tondela - Trofense	0:0 ✺
24.10.22	Leixões - Tondela	1:1 ✺
19.10.22	Tondela - Oliveirense	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Tondela - Santa Clara	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.10.22	Mafra - Tondela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTLWT

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