Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Gil Bernardes da Silveira (Sumare) (Vila Velha)


	Vilavelhense		Desportiva Ferroviaria

	1	X	2
	4.15	3.1	1.82
	4.52	3.26	1.73
	3.68	3.05	2.03	Watch
	4.4	3	1.8
	4.08	3.25	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↑ (3.82)	3.13 ↓ (3.28)	1.86 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilavelhense
21.9%

Draw
29.1%

Desportiva Ferroviaria
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

27.8%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

27.3%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilavelhense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Desportiva Ferroviaria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilavelhense than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desportiva Ferroviaria than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Vilavelhense (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vilavelhense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Joao Gomes (G) 5. Borjao 9. Diogo Bolt 8. Gabriel Amorim 4. Gabriel Dembele 11. Guilherme 3. Jomar 6. Kainandro 10. Kelvin 7. Lucas Bonete 2. Makelele	32. Pedro Zanette (G) 23. Bahia 2. Jairo 14. Jorge Mendes 9. Kieza 13. Mariano 5. Ruan 20. Tiago Moura (C) 4. Vinicius Leandro 18. Wesley Dias 6. Wilian Simoes
Substitutes
16. Alberto 18. Campos Almeida E. d. S. 21. Daniel Rodrigues 13. Davi Freitas 20. Davis 14. Fellipi Marques 100. Joao Firmino 15. Joao Rozario 22. Juninho 91. Matheus Cabral (G) 17. Salah 19. Shaider	25. Cunha V. M. 3. Janelson 19. Jhonatan Marino 17. Kaka 16. Kevin 15. Lekinho 8. Parmanhani K. 1. Rafael Mallmann (G) 7. Rodriguinho 11. Yan de Jesus

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Gabriel Dembele (Own goal),
29', Borjao 🟨,
33', Gabriel Dembele 🟨,
38', Guilherme 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 1 - 1, Diogo Bolt ⚽,
73', Guilherme ↓, Joao Rozario ↑,
73', Kelvin ↓, Alberto ↑,
78', Jorge Mendes 🟨,
80', Ruan ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
80', Mariano ↓, Yan de Jesus ↑,
80', Kieza ↓, Kevin ↑,
84', Diogo Bolt ↓, Shaider ↑,
84', Bahia ↓, Lekinho ↑,
85', Joao Gomes 🟨,
90+6', Gabriel Amorim ↓, Joao Firmino ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vilavelhense won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Vilavelhense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ferroviaria could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Vilavelhense won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vilavelhense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:12. (average 0.5:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilavelhense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
22.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Porto Vitória - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Rio Branco-VN - Vilavelhense	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Vilavelhense - Forte Rio Bananal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 TLWWT
- Desportiva Ferroviaria
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
22.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Capixaba SC	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Noroeste - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
22.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:1
20.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:2
08.03.25	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	2:1
05.03.25	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:4
09.02.25	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:4
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
30.06.24	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:1
09.06.24	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:3

Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide