Match Info

Date: 2 August 2021, Monday


	Villa Española		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.37	Watch
	2.85	3	2.4
	2.75	3.1	2.35
	2.9	3.05	2.36
	3.12	3.21	2.5
	2.9	3	2.35
	2.92	3.22	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.89)	3.13 ↓ (3.31)	2.39 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa Española
31.8%

Draw
29.6%

Cerrito
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

27.9%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

20.5%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa Española has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa Española than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villa Española that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+15.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerrito could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Villa Española - Cerrito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 10).

Villa Española is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cerrito is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Villa Española won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Villa Española won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSD Villa Española
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.07.21	Nacional Montevideo - Villa Española	3:0 ✺
10.07.21	Villa Española - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0 ✺
03.07.21	Villa Española - Montevideo City Torque	2:3 ✺
26.06.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Villa Española	1:1 ✺
23.06.21	Villa Española - Rentistas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWLTL
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.07.21	Montevideo City Torque - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
11.07.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerrito	2:0 ✺
05.07.21	Cerrito - Rentistas	0:1 ✺
29.06.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:0 ✺
22.06.21	Cerrito - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
24.11.20	Cerrito - Villa Española	1:1
29.09.20	Villa Española - Cerrito	1:2
16.11.19	Villa Española - Cerrito	0:1
09.11.19	Cerrito - Villa Española	0:2
31.08.19	Villa Española - Cerrito	3:2

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