Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Round 3

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports


	Montevideo Wanderers		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.95	3.10
	2.18	3.00	3.05	Watch
	3.22	2.83	2.45
	2.19	3.17	3.18	Watch
	2.16	3.05	3.15
	3.43	3.12	2.18	Watch
	2.8	2.95	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (1.68)	3.01 ↓ (3.6)	2.78 ↓ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo Wanderers
35.8%

Draw
30.8%

Cerrito
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

25.6%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

25%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Montevideo Wanderers's form might have worsened.

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerrito's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (+20.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montevideo Wanderers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerrito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Wanderers will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Batista L. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 1 - 2, Batista L. ⚽,
90', 1 - 3, Isasmendi J. ⚽,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

Wanderers is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Cerrito has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Wanderers for this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Wanderers has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 7:3 (averaging 1.4:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Wanderers against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo Wanderers	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.09.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTLLT
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.26	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.09.26	Cerrito - Paysandú	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.09.26	Cerrito - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
13.10.22	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	2:1
22.05.22	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	0:2
24.10.21	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	2:2
29.06.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:0
19.05.12	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	N/A

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