Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Villanovense		Don Benito

	1	X	2
	3.55	2.68	2.2
	3.48	2.88	2.24	Watch
	3.3	2.63	2.3
	3.57	2.71	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.07)	2.73 ↓ (3)	2.24 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villanovense
26.1%

Draw
33.3%

Don Benito
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

30.3%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

30.1%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villanovense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Don Benito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villanovense than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Don Benito than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Villanovense - Don Benito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
31', Munoz S. 🟥,
32', 0 - 1, Platero P. ⚽,
38', 0 - 2, Carlos Lopez (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
48', 0 - 3, ⚽,
71', 0 - 4, ⚽,
81', 0 - 5, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villanovense won 1.

In recent matches, Villanovense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Don Benito is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Don Benito could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Villanovense won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Villanovense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Villanovense	5	2	1	2	5:4	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Don Benito - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.06%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Villanovense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
15.02.26	Santa Amalia - Villanovense	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Villanovense - Azuaga	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Gévora - Villanovense	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Villanovense - Calamonte	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Puebla de la Calzada - Villanovense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLTWT
- CD Don Benito
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
15.02.26	Don Benito - Cabeza del Buey	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Llerenense - Don Benito	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Don Benito - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Pueblonuevo - Don Benito	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Don Benito - Montijo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
13.10.25	Don Benito - Villanovense	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
16.02.25	Villanovense - Don Benito	2:0
06.10.24	Don Benito - Villanovense	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
15.04.23	Don Benito - Villanovense	0:0
04.12.22	Villanovense - Don Benito	0:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
27.02.22	Don Benito - Villanovense	1:0
10.10.21	Villanovense - Don Benito	0:2

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