Match Info

LaLiga - Round 17

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	CCTV-5, iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect, TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2, Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Sports 5, S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22


	Villarreal		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	3.8	4.33	1.73	Watch
	3.95	4.3	1.78	Watch
	3.57	4.88	1.84
	4.03	4.49	1.78	Watch
	3.75	4.2	1.75
	4.16	4.57	1.8	Watch
	4	4.5	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↑ (3.01)	4.47 ↓ (4.64)	1.77 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
24.6%

Draw
21.4%

Barcelona
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

20.5%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

20.5%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Villarreal's form might have worsened.

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barcelona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Villarreal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barcelona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.1%	11.4%	78.5%

Villarreal - Barcelona Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Villarreal (3.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Barcelona (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Barcelona (2.03) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (62 of 79 users predict this - 78.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.42% – 87.54%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Barcelona will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 36 Selected Experts predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 2 - 5.6%). Barcelona (votes: 32 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Junior (G) 26. Navarro P. 4. Marin R. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 10. Parejo D. (C) 20. Moleiro A. 19. Pepe N. 22. Perez A.	13. Garcia J. (G) 23. Kounde J. 5. Cubarsi P. 18. Martin G. 3. Balde A. 24. Garcia E. 21. de Jong F. (C) 10. Lamine Yamal 16. Fermín 11. Raphinha 7. Torres F.
Substitutes
3. Altimira A. 38. Diatta A. 37. Macia C. 9. Mikautadze G. 7. Moreno G. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 6. Solomon M. 25. Tenas A. (G) 27. Valou J.	28. Bardghji R. 22. Bernal M. 17. Casado M. 27. Fernandez D. 9. Lewandowski R. 43. Marques T. 14. Rashford M. 25. Szczesny W. (G) 1. ter Stegen M. (G)
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Flick H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Raphinha (Penalty Awarded),
39', Veiga R. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', de Jong F. 🟨,
62', Torres F. ↓, Lewandowski R. ↑,
63', Fermín ↓, Rashford M. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Lamine Yamal ⚽, de Jong F. (A),
65', Perez A. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
66', Garcia E. ↓, Bernal M. ↑,
73', Buchanan T. 🟨,
75', Parejo D. ↓, Macia C. ↑,
75', Pepe N. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
79', Kounde J. ↓, Casado M. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 2.

Villarreal has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barcelona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Barcelona is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Akhomach I. (International duty) Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Cardona S. (Muscle Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Gueye P. (International duty) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury) Mourino S. (Muscle Injury) Partey T. (Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Araujo R. (Personal Reasons) Gavi (Knee Injury) Olmo D. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Moreno G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Barcelona: Pedri (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 27:56. (average 1.4:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Villarreal won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:28. (average 1.4:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Villarreal - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 31.56%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Racing Santander - Villarreal	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Villarreal - Copenhagen	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Villarreal - Getafe	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Antoniano - Villarreal	1:2 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.11.25	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWW
- FC Barcelona
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Barcelona - Osasuna	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Barcelona - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Betis - Barcelona	3:5 ✺
02.12.25	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
18.05.25	Barcelona - Villarreal	2:3
22.09.24	Villarreal - Barcelona	1:5
27.01.24	Barcelona - Villarreal	3:5
27.08.23	Villarreal - Barcelona	3:4
12.02.23	Villarreal - Barcelona	0:1
20.10.22	Barcelona - Villarreal	3:0
22.05.22	Barcelona - Villarreal	0:2

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