What is the expert prediction for Real Sociedad vs Villarreal?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Real Sociedad vs Villarreal. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Real Sociedad vs Villarreal Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, November 30, 2025)

Match Info

LaLiga - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Reale Arena (San Sebastian)

Referee: Soto Grado C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, Startimes Am'mobi, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Canal 5, Sky Sport, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Real Sociedad		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.82	3.35	2.52	Watch
	2.92	3.37	2.59
	2.59	3.59	2.59	Watch
	2.9	3.43	2.64	Watch
	2.85	3.33	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.57)	3.41 ↓ (3.53)	2.56 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
34.3%

Draw
28.2%

Villarreal
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

26.9%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

27.6%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.6%	35.3%	44.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Real Sociedad will win (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Villarreal will win (votes: 15 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 28.5% – 62.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Villarreal (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Villarreal (1.74) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25 - Villarreal (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Real Sociedad (1.99) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Villarreal (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 6. Elustondo A. (C) 31. Martin J. 17. Gomez S. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 18. Soler C. 14. Kubo T. 23. Mendez B. 11. Guedes G. 15. Sadiq U.	1. Luiz Junior (G) 15. Mourino S. 8. Foyth J. 4. Marin R. 24. Pedraza A. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 18. Gueye P. 20. Moleiro A. 7. Moreno G. (C) 22. Perez A.
Substitutes
7. Barrenetxea A. 38. Beitia L. 16. Caleta-Car D. 42. Carrera G. 22. Goti Lopez M. 28. Marin P. 13. Marrero U. (G) 3. Munoz A. 20. Odriozola A. 24. Sucic L. 8. Turrientes B. 21. Zakharyan A.	11. Akhomach I. 3. Altimira A. 23. Cardona S. 9. Mikautadze G. 26. Navarro P. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 10. Parejo D. 16. Partey T. 19. Pepe N. 6. Solomon M. 25. Tenas A. (G) 12. Veiga R.
Coaches
Francisco S.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Gueye P. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Perez A. ⚽, Pedraza A. (A),
42', Sadiq U. 🟨,
45+2', Perez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
50', Moleiro A. 🟨,
56', Sadiq U. ↓, Barrenetxea A. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Moleiro A. ⚽, Perez A. (A),
61', 1 - 2, Soler C. ⚽, Kubo T. (A),
67', Pedraza A. 🟨,
69', Moreno G. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
69', Gueye P. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
69', Martin J. 🟨,
70', Barrenetxea A. 🟨,
73', Mourino S. 🟨,
74', Luiz Junior 🟨,
77', Soler C. ↓, Zakharyan A. ↑,
77', Guedes G. ↓, Carrera G. ↑,
78', Pedraza A. ↓, Cardona S. ↑,
78', Buchanan T. ↓, Akhomach I. ↑,
85', Mendez B. ↓, Goti Lopez M. ↑,
85', Kubo T. ↓, Turrientes B. ↑,
86', Perez A. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Barrenetxea A. ⚽,
90', Foyth J. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 3, Moleiro A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 2.

Real Sociedad has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Villarreal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Villarreal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Herrera Y. (Calf Injury) Karrikaburu J. (Calf Injury) Oskarsson O. (Hamstring Injury) Oyarzabal M. (Muscle Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Sociedad won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
22.11.25	Osasuna - Real Sociedad	1:3 ✺
07.11.25	Elche - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Negreira - Real Sociedad	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.10.25	Real Sociedad - Sevilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWWW
- Villarreal CF
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.11.25	Villarreal - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Espanyol - Villarreal	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Paphos - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
20.04.25	Villarreal - Real Sociedad	2:2
13.01.25	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:0
23.02.24	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:3
09.12.23	Villarreal - Real Sociedad	0:3
02.04.23	Villarreal - Real Sociedad	2:0
09.10.22	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:0
15.05.22	Villarreal - Real Sociedad	1:2

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