Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 23

Date: 4 February 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Fuertes P. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Argentina	10:00	DirecTV
Australia	00:00	Optus Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	14:00	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	15:00	Max Sport 4
Croatia	14:00	Arena Sport
Cyprus	15:00	PrimeTel
Czech Republic	14:00	Nova Sport 4
Finland	15:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	14:00	beIN Sports Max
Greece	15:00	Nova Sports
Poland	14:00	Canal+ Sport 5
Portugal	13:00	Eleven Sports 5
Serbia	14:00	Arena Sport
United Kingdom	13:00	Viaplay


	Villarreal		Cádiz

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5.5	Watch
	1.63	4	5.25
	1.63	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.67	4.05	5.5
	1.65	4.08	5.63
	1.6	4	5
	1.63	4.1	5.81	Watch
	1.59	4.25	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.64)	4.09 ↑ (3.98)	5.46 ↑ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
59%

Draw
23.5%

Cádiz
17.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

17.6%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Cádiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-16.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villarreal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cádiz than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cádiz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.2%	8.2%	6.6%

Villarreal - Cádiz Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (52 of 61 users predict this - 85.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.35% – 94.15%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jorgensen F. (G) 17. Kiko 3. Albiol R. (C) 5. Cuenca J. 18. Moreno A. 27. Akhomach I. 4. Comesana S. 19. Coquelin F. 16. Baena A. 7. Moreno G. 11. Sorloth A.	1. Ledesma C. (G) 20. Carcelen I. (C) 22. Mere J. 5. Chust V. 33. Lucas Pires 11. Alejo I. 8. Fernandez A. 17. Escalante G. 27. Navarro R. 7. Sobrino R. 16. Ramos C.
Substitutes
26. Altimira A. 31. Alvarez I. (G) 6. Capoue E. 9. Guedes G. 23. Mandi A. 15. Morales J. L. 2. Mosquera Y. 14. Trigueros M.	13. Gil D. (G) 25. Gomez M. 19. Guardiola S. 9. Juanmi 12. Kouame R. 18. Machis D. 14. Mbaye M. 10. Ocampo B. 24. Ousou A. 2. Zaldua J.
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Pellegrino M.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Villarreal won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Cádiz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Villarreal have a series of guest games.

In this match Villarreal is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Villarreal won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Villarreal won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
27.01.24	Barcelona - Villarreal	3:5 ✺
20.01.24	Villarreal - Mallorca	1:1 ✺
13.01.24	Las Palmas - Villarreal	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
08.01.24	Unionistas de Salamanca - Villarreal	2:1 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.01.24	Valencia - Villarreal	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WTLLL
- Cádiz CF
Spanish LaLiga
28.01.24	Cádiz - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
19.01.24	Deportivo Alavés - Cádiz	1:0 ✺
14.01.24	Cádiz - Valencia	1:4 ✺
03.01.24	Granada - Cádiz	2:0 ✺
21.12.23	Cádiz - Real Sociedad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.09.23	Cádiz - Villarreal	3:1
24.05.23	Villarreal - Cádiz	2:0
01.10.22	Cádiz - Villarreal	0:0
20.03.22	Cádiz - Villarreal	1:0
26.10.21	Villarreal - Cádiz	3:3
21.03.21	Villarreal - Cádiz	2:1
25.10.20	Cádiz - Villarreal	0:0

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