Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 23

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas)

Referee: Maeso F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Las Palmas		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.6	Watch
	5.25	4.1	1.6
	5.5	4.2	1.63	Watch
	5.69	4.2	1.65
	5.63	4.13	1.62	Watch
	5.5	4	1.62
	5.64	4.1	1.64	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.53 ↑ (4.04)	4.12 ↑ (3.86)	1.62 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
17.4%

Draw
23.4%

Villarreal
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

24.9%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

25.1%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Las Palmas's form might have worsened.

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Las Palmas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.3%	3.8%	84.9%

Las Palmas - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (44 of 52 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.81% – 94.43%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cillessen J. (G) 6. Pelmard A. 4. Alex Suarez (C) 15. McKenna S. 3. Marmol M. 12. Loiodice E. 21. Bajcetic S. 19. Ramirez S. 5. Javier Munoz 10. Moleiro A. 16. McBurnie O.	13. Conde D. (G) 17. Kiko Femenia (C) 8. Foyth J. 5. Kambwala W. 23. Cardona S. 21. Pino Y. 18. Gueye P. 14. Comesana S. 16. Baena A. 22. Perez A. 15. Barry T.
Substitutes
14. Fuster M. 28. Herzog J. 13. Horkas D. (G) 2. Marvin 23. Munoz A. 11. Ramirez B. 40. Romero E. 41. Ruiz S. 33. Viera Garcia S. 18. Viti	3. Albiol R. 4. Bailly E. 9. Buchanan T. 2. Costa L. 1. Junior Reis (G) 26. Navarro P. 10. Parejo D. 19. Pepe N. 27. Sola A. 6. Suarez D.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Marcelino 🟨,
33', Cardona S. 🟨,
37', Marmol M. 🟨,
38', Comesana S. 🟨,
40', Ramirez S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kiko Femenia ↓, Navarro P. ↑,
46', Comesana S. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Baena A. ⚽, Cardona S. (A),
55', McKenna S. 🟨,
61', Loiodice E. ↓, Viti ↑,
61', Pelmard A. ↓, Fuster M. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Perez A. ⚽, Baena A. (A),
68', Perez A. ↓, Pepe N. ↑,
75', Pino Y. ↓, Buchanan T. ↑,
78', Bajcetic S. ↓, Marvin ↑,
81', Kambwala W. ↓, Costa L. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Fuster M. ⚽, McBurnie O. (A),
85', Ramirez S. ↓, Ramirez B. ↑,
85', Alex Suarez ↓, Herzog J. ↑,
87', Alex Suarez 🟨,
90', Baena A. 🟨,
90+1', Baena A. ↓, Bailly E. ↑,
90+9', Javier Munoz 🟨,
90+10', Moleiro A. 🟨,

Preview

Samsonova is ranked WTA: 20. Sun is ranked WTA: 45.

Two players are in a poor body shape now.

Samsonova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Samsonova is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
03.02.25	Girona - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
24.01.25	Las Palmas - Osasuna	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	4:1 ✺
12.01.25	Las Palmas - Getafe	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.01.25	Elche - Las Palmas	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.25	Villarreal - Valladolid	5:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
20.01.25	Villarreal - Mallorca	4:0 ✺
13.01.25	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
22.12.24	Leganés - Villarreal	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
30.09.24	Villarreal - Las Palmas	3:1
13.01.24	Las Palmas - Villarreal	3:0
08.10.23	Villarreal - Las Palmas	1:2
11.03.18	Las Palmas - Villarreal	0:2
22.10.17	Villarreal - Las Palmas	4:0
17.03.17	Las Palmas - Villarreal	1:0
23.10.16	Villarreal - Las Palmas	2:1

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