Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 6 - Round 30

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday


	Villarreal C		Castellonense

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.82	2.62
	2.68	2.89	2.68
	1.57	4.08	5.04	Watch
	2.7	2.7	2.63
	2.63	2.85	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.6)	3.07 ↓ (3.2)	3.12 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal C
38.7%

Draw
30.9%

Castellonense
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

28.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

28.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal C has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Castellonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castellonense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal C than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellonense than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castellonense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Villarreal C - Castellonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
69', 2 - 0, ⚽,
87', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 6 (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Villarreal C is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castellonense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Castellonense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Villarreal C won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Villarreal C won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Villarreal C	5	4	0	1	8:4	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Villarreal C - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.06%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal C
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
02.04.26	Ontinyent 1931 - Villarreal C	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Villarreal C - Atlético Saguntino	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Villarreal C - La Nucía	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Crevillente Deportivo - Villarreal C	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Villarreal C - Soneja	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTWW
- UD Castellonense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
04.04.26	Castellonense - La Nucía	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Crevillente Deportivo - Castellonense	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Castellonense - Soneja	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Buñol - Castellonense	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Castellonense - Utiel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
06.12.25	Castellonense - Villarreal C	3:2
19.01.25	Villarreal C - Castellonense	2:2
07.01.24	Villarreal C - Castellonense	1:1

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