Match Info

National - Round 15

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	BFM Lyon, FFF TV
World	FIFA+


	Villefranche		Caen

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.15	1.98
	4.05	3.3	2.04
	3.96	3.15	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.1	1.95
	3.57	3.46	2	Watch
	4	3.14	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.25)	3.22 ↑ (3.07)	1.97 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villefranche
24.4%

Draw
28.7%

Caen
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

30.2%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

28.8%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villefranche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villefranche than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Villefranche - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Villefranche will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Caen will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caen: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Caen will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pean S. (G) 2. Sbai H. 14. Dekoke N. (C) 4. Valentim E. 18. Keita S. 28. Ahamada A. 10. Mroivili R. 25. Ouedraogo L. 12. Testud K. 26. Thoumin A. 27. Mixtur K.	1. Mandrea A. (G) 27. Debohi D. 23. Morante L. 28. Sagnan S. 26. Etuin M. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 24. Milliner L. 17. Labonne R. 22. Hafid M. 19. Botella I. 7. Diakite A.
Substitutes
21. Boudache I. 9. Leye B. 19. Nagera K. 29. Ngom Matip T. 20. Sofiane Y.	25. Bagbema Z. 11. Gnanduillet A. 12. Mazie O. 14. Rajot L. 2. Vinicius Gomes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Debohi D. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Mroivili R. ⚽, Mixtur K. (A),
18', Debohi D. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
18', Etuin M. ↓, Vinicius Gomes ↑,
30', Ouedraogo L. 🟨,
30', Mandrea A. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Botella I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Sagnan S. 🟨,
62', Testud K. ↓, Ngom Matip T. ↑,
66', Rajot L. 🟨,
72', Milliner L. ↓, Gnanduillet A. ↑,
72', Diakite A. ↓, Mazie O. ↑,
75', Morante L. 🟨,
77', Thoumin A. ↓, Leye B. ↑,
88', Mroivili R. ↓, Boudache I. ↑,
88', Mixtur K. ↓, Nagera K. ↑,
89', Sbai H. ↓, Sofiane Y. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 9).

Villefranche has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Caen has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Caen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Villefranche
French Ligue 3
21.11.25	Paris 13 Atletico - Villefranche	1:0 ✺
07.11.25	Villefranche - Stade Briochin	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Rouen FC - Villefranche	2:1 ✺
21.10.25	Villefranche - Orleans	1:2 ✺
17.10.25	Le Puy - Villefranche	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
21.11.25	Caen - Bourg-Péronnas	1:0 ✺
07.11.25	Caen - Paris 13 Atletico	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Stade Briochin - Caen	1:1 ✺
21.10.25	Caen - Rouen FC	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Orleans - Caen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTTTL

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