Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 28

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Independiente del Valle		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.27	5	9.5	Watch
	1.28	4.8	8.5
	1.28	5.15	8.8
	1.29	5.15	10.5
	3.10	1.52	11.42	Watch
	1.28	5.14	10.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.31)	4.46 ↓ (4.68)	9.85 ↑ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
66%

Draw
23.4%

Vinotinto
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

19.6%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.6%

18.1%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

The chances for Vinotinto have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 23. Santamaria T. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. (C) 15. Cortez G. 13. Fernandez M. 32. Mendez J. 26. Cazares 10. Sornoza J. 31. Pata E. 77. Spinelli C.	25. Mitre L. (G) 4. Aguirre A. 36. Nardelli G. 2. Iriarte I. 23. Gomez L. 8. Melo A. 30. Julio M. 18. Ushina K. 11. Mina A. 77. Ibarra R. (C) 17. Monti R.
Substitutes
21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 55. Guagua D. 11. Hoyos M. 19. Loor L. 7. Mercado P. 4. Quinonez O. 17. Rodriguez A. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 18. Zabala C. 2. Zarate L.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 26. Hernandez E. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 10. Luna D. 40. Mera F. 52. Micolta C. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E.
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Schurrer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Monti R. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Julio M. ↓, Ona C. ↑,
46', Pata E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
60', Santamaria T. ↓, Mercado P. ↑,
60', Cortez G. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
60', Sornoza J. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
73', Fernandez M. 🟨,
73', Melo A. 🟨,
74', Melo A. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
76', Schunke R. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽, Carabajal M. (A),
82', Cazares ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Rodriguez A. ⚽,
85', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
86', Ibarra R. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
89', Iriarte I. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽, Arroyo J. P. (A),
90+2', Ushina K. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
90+2', Gomez L. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Ind del Valle is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Vinotinto is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vinotinto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ind del Valle is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ind del Valle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
12.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWW
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.08.25	Vinotinto - El Nacional	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Vinotinto - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Vinotinto	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
14.08.25	Gualaceo - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.08.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.05.25	Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle	1:3
Club Friendly
05.02.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	0:0
Ecuadorian Copa
29.08.24	Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle	1:2

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