Match Info

BOLIVIA: DIVISION PROFESIONAL - ROUND 24

Date: 18 August 2023, Friday

Location: Quillacollo Stadium (Quillacollo)


	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor		Aurora

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.87
	3.3	3.5	1.9
	3.55	3.73	1.94
	3.7	3.68	1.93	Watch
	3.5	3.6	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.41)	3.59 ↑ (3.41)	1.91 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinto Atlético Palmaflor
26.1%

Draw
25.7%

Aurora
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

26.9%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

26.8%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinto Atlético Palmaflor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinto Atlético Palmaflor's form might have worsened.

Aurora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aurora's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinto Atlético Palmaflor than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinto Atlético Palmaflor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aurora, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	15%	80%

Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Aurora Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Palmaflor will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Aurora will win (votes: 16 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aurora: 62.5% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Rojas J. (G) 14. Vargas J. 31. Coronel R. (C) 44. Mina Meza A. R. 8. Lima R. 13. Luna F. 15. Alcocer P. 66. Spenhay R. 19. Alvarez G. 23. Orihuela R. 33. Huasna N.	99. Akologo D. (G) 3. Barboza L. (C) 31. Michelli E. 10. Torrico J. 14. Aranibar B. 24. Cejas C. 26. Torrico D. 8. Ramallo R. 70. Serginho 7. Blanco O. 18. Reinoso J.
Substitutes
25. Adorno C. (G) 36. Ayala Nava A. E. 2. Fernandez K. 40. Garcia E. 18. Garzon M. 28. Guerra J. 11. Hurtado Badani L. E. 21. Ortiz M. 27. Roca T. 4. Rodriguez L. 6. Serrano M. 24. Vasquez D.	5. Aguilar F. 21. Ballivian R. 12. Cardenas L. (G) 89. Huayhuata I. 19. Montano G. 16. Moruno S. 20. Sanchez A. 22. Taboada N. 32. Vallejos Y.
Coaches
Brizuela C.	Perez R.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 13 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Palmaflor won 0.

Palmaflor is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Aurora is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palmaflor could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Aurora will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Palmaflor won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Palmaflor won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinto Atlético Palmaflor
Bolivian Division Profesional
14.08.23	Blooming - Vinto Atlético Palmaflor	1:1 ✺
05.08.23	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Oriente Petrolero	1:2 ✺
29.07.23	The Strongest - Vinto Atlético Palmaflor	4:0 ✺
23.07.23	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Royal Pari	2:2 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
19.07.23	Guabirá - Vinto Atlético Palmaflor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLTL
- Club Aurora
Bolivian Division Profesional
12.08.23	Aurora - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
09.08.23	The Strongest - Aurora	0:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
05.08.23	Independiente Petroleros - Aurora	1:1 ✺
30.07.23	Aurora - Universitario de Vinto	0:1 ✺
22.07.23	Nacional Potosí - Aurora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Copa Pacena
01.07.23	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Aurora	0:0
Bolivian Division Profesional
03.04.23	Aurora - Vinto Atlético Palmaflor	2:1
01.10.22	Aurora - Vinto Atlético Palmaflor	0:0
16.07.22	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Aurora	1:2
24.04.22	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Aurora	0:1
19.02.22	Aurora - Vinto Atlético Palmaflor	1:2
04.12.21	Vinto Atlético Palmaflor - Aurora	3:2

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