Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 10

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday


	Tre Penne		Murata

	1	X	2
	1.34	4.35	7.5
	1.36	4.52	7.58	Watch
	1.32	4.25	9.25
	1.34	4.15	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.34)	4.32 ↑ (4.28)	7.83 ↓ (8.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tre Penne
67.5%

Draw
21%

Murata
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

21.2%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

17.7%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tre Penne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Murata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tre Penne than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tre Penne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murata than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Tre Penne - Murata Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Pastorelli L. ⚽, Peluso L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 2 - 0, Berardi F. ⚽, Migani M. (A),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tre Penne won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Tre Penne is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tre Penne won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:6. (average 2.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tre Penne won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
08.11.25	Tre Penne - Domagnano	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Juvenes-Dogana - Tre Penne	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Tre Penne - Tre Fiori	0:0 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
21.10.25	Domagnano - Tre Penne	2:2 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.10.25	Cosmos - Tre Penne	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTTTL
- SS Murata
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
09.11.25	Murata - San Giovanni	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Cosmos - Murata	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Murata - Domagnano	0:6 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
22.10.25	Faetano - Murata	1:1 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
19.10.25	San Marino Academy U22 - Murata	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
12.04.25	Tre Penne - Murata	2:2
18.05.24	Murata - Tre Penne	2:3 ET
21.02.24	Murata - Tre Penne	0:2
29.10.23	Tre Penne - Murata	3:0
19.02.23	Tre Penne - Murata	2:0
08.10.22	Murata - Tre Penne	1:4
30.01.22	Murata - Tre Penne	1:1

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