Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 37

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Tonino Benelli (Pesaro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257


	Vis Pesaro		SPAL

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3
	2.14	3.35	3.15
	2.25	3.27	3.17
	2.21	3.28	3.25	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	2.18	3.22	3.33	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.12)	3.24 ↑ (3)	3.15 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vis Pesaro
42.5%

Draw
28.4%

SPAL
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

30.3%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

27.7%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vis Pesaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vis Pesaro than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Vis Pesaro - SPAL Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vukovic A. (G) 77. Afonso Peixoto 34. Cannavo K. 15. Ceccacci M. 26. Coppola F. 10. Di Paola M. (C) 97. Lari N. 9. Nicastro F. 17. Paganini L. 7. Pucciarelli M. 3. Zoia R.	12. Galeotti C. (G) 5. Awua T. 3. Bruscagin M. 28. Calapai L. 8. El Kaddouri O. 6. Fiordaliso A. 25. Molina J. I. 29. Nador S. 18. Ntenda J. 27. Parigini V. 40. Spini C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Paganini L. ⚽,
34', El Kaddouri O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', El Kaddouri O. ↓, Antenucci M. ↑,
61', Lari N. ↓, Neri G. M. ↑,
68', Spini C. ↓, Bidaoui S. ↑,
69', Awua T. ↓, Radrezza I. ↑,
69', Afonso Peixoto ↓, Di Renzo G. ↑,
76', Di Paola M. 🟨,
77', Parigini V. ↓, D'Orazio L. ↑,
81', Pucciarelli M. ↓, Tonucci D. ↑,
81', Ceccacci M. ↓, Obi J. ↑,
81', Cannavo K. ↓, Tavernaro F. ↑,
84', Ntenda J. ↓, Zammarini R. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Nador S. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Recent matches Vis Pesaro is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

SPAL is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Vis Pesaro will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Vis Pesaro: Bove D. (Inactive) Forte M. (Inactive) Obi J. (Inactive)

There will not play in SPAL: Arena M. (Yellow Cards) Bidaoui S. (Muscle Injury) Camelio U. (Muscle Injury) Karlsson O. (Injury) Parravicini F. (Heart Problems) Rao E. (Yellow Cards) Sottini E. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Vis Pesaro won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Vis Pesaro won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

SPAL - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 26.87%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSD Vis Pesaro 1898
Italian Serie C Group B
13.04.25	Lucchese - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Vis Pesaro - Rimini	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	Ascoli - Vis Pesaro	0:0 ✺
22.03.25	Vis Pesaro - Pianese	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Pescara - Vis Pesaro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLTWT
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie C Group B
12.04.25	SPAL - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Sassari Torres - SPAL	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	SPAL - Legnago Salus	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Pineto - SPAL	3:2 ✺
17.03.25	SPAL - Ternana	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
07.12.24	SPAL - Vis Pesaro	0:1
06.01.24	Vis Pesaro - SPAL	1:1
02.09.23	SPAL - Vis Pesaro	1:0
Club Friendly
11.09.20	Vis Pesaro - SPAL	0:2

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