Match Info

Capixaba - Round 4

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa (Vitoria)


	Vitória ES		Desportiva Ferroviaria

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.2	5.15
	1.49	3.65	6.15
	1.6	3.46	5.61	Watch
	1.6	3.25	5.5
	1.59	3.4	5.6
	1.58	3.4	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.86)	3.39 ↑ (3.25)	5.63 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória ES
57.2%

Draw
26.7%

Desportiva Ferroviaria
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

28.1%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória ES has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitória ES's performance.

Desportiva Ferroviaria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Desportiva Ferroviaria might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Paulo Henrique (G) 22. Abuda 10. Carlos Vitor 2. Foguete 20. Gustavo Tonoli 8. Joao Paulo 15. Jonata 9. Patrick 4. Roberto Junior 6. Thiago Magatao 7. Thiago Ramos	32. Pedro Zanette (G) 23. Bahia 2. Jairo 3. Janelson 14. Jorge Mendes 13. Mariano (C) 9. Romaneli 5. Ruan 20. Tiago Moura 4. Vinicius Leandro 6. Wilian Simoes
Substitutes
14. Alexsandro 23. Caio Ferraz 18. Canario 25. Cezini 16. Geisandro 5. Gualberto 3. Guilherme Truyts 21. Junior Vernier (G) 24. Kaiky 1. Lucao (G) 27. Mailson 17. Marcelinho 11. Vini	25. Cunha V. M. 19. Jhonatan Marino 16. Kevin 15. Lekinho 17. Lucas Tavares 1. Rafael Mallmann (G) 7. Rodriguinho 22. Talles 18. Wesley Dias 11. Yan de Jesus

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Tiago Moura ⚽,
21', 0 - 2, Jorge Mendes ⚽,
26', Jonata 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ruan ↓, Yan de Jesus ↑,
46', Carlos Vitor ↓, Canario ↑,
47', Mariano 🟨,
61', Joao Paulo ↓, Vini ↑,
62', Thiago Ramos 🟨,
67', Thiago Magatao ↓, Gualberto ↑,
67', Gustavo Tonoli ↓, Cezini ↑,
69', Tiago Moura ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
69', Jorge Mendes ↓, Jhonatan Marino ↑,
76', Janelson 🟨,
82', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
87', Romaneli ↓, Cunha V. M. ↑,
87', Bahia ↓, Kevin ↑,
87', Patrick ↓, Alexsandro ↑,
89', Yan de Jesus 🟨,
90+2', Pedro Zanette 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória ES won 1.

Ferroviaria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vitória ES is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Vitória ES won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória ES won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
21.01.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Vitória ES	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Vitória ES - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
03.08.25	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	3:1 ✺
26.07.25	Vitória ES - Noroeste	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTWWW
- Desportiva Ferroviaria
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
20.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Serra - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:0 ✺
13.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Rio Branco-VN	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.12.25	Tombense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
29.07.25	Porto Vitória - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
07.06.25	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
18.01.25	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vitória ES	1:0
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
11.05.24	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.02.24	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:2
21.01.23	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	2:0
26.03.22	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:2
09.02.20	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:0

Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide