Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães) 🌤️ ...

Referee: D'hondt L. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 4
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	00:30	Stan Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:30	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	11:30	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Croatia	16:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	16:30	Sport 2
Denmark	16:30	Disney+
Finland	17:30	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	16:30	Canal+ Live 2
Greece	17:30	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
Italy	16:30	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	16:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Myanmar	21:00	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	16:30	Ziggo Sport 3
North Central America	—	SportsMax 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	16:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	16:30	Viaplay
Poland	16:30	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	15:30	DAZN 1
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	23:30	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	16:30	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	16:30	Disney+
Switzerland	16:30	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Ukraine	17:30	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United Kingdom	15:30	beIN Sports MENA English 2, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 3
Usa	10:30	Paramount+
International	14:30	Disney+, SportsMax App


	Vitoria Guimarães		Celje

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	7.5
	1.33	4.8	7.75
	1.33	5	9
	1.35	5.01	9.21
	1.35	4.9	8.24	Watch
	1.5	4.33	4.8
	1.37	5.14	8.75
	1.33	5	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.44)	4.9 ↑ (4.46)	8.03 ↑ (6.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
69.1%

Draw
19.2%

Celje
11.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.7%

20.9%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

22.5%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	3.7%	7.4%

Vitoria Guimarães - Celje Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.07% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Varela B. (C) 76. Gaspar B. 24. Borevkovic T. 3. Villanueva M. 13. Mendes J. 10. Tiago Silva 8. Handel T. 20. Samu 71. Gustavo 7. Oliveira N. 11. Kaio Cesar	22. Rozman M. (C) 6. Zec D. 81. Nemanic K. 3. Vuklisevic D. 2. Juanjo Nieto 11. Seslar S. 4. Dulca M. 88. Svetlin T. 7. Matko A. 47. Kucys A. 8. Bobicanec L.
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 79. Bica 27. Charles Silva (G) 22. Costa A. 6. Manu 17. Mendes J. 2. Miguel Maga 9. Ramirez J. 4. Ribeiro T. 15. Rivas Viondi O. 77. Santos N. 28. Ze Carlos	77. Brnic I. 30. Edmilson 12. Kolar L. (G) 10. Kouter N. 5. Lhernault C. 98. Stubljar L. (G)
Coaches
Borges R.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Samu ⚽, Kaio Cesar (A),
36', 2 - 0, Gustavo ⚽, Gaspar B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Brnic I. ↑,
62', 3 - 0, Tiago Silva ⚽, Gustavo (A),
63', Dulca M. ↓, Lhernault C. ↑,
66', Bobicanec L. ↓, Kouter N. ↑,
67', Oliveira N. ↓, Ramirez J. ↑,
67', Tiago Silva ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
67', Gustavo ↓, Santos N. ↑,
70', Kucys A. 🟨,
73', Kucys A. ↓, Edmilson ↑,
76', Samu ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
76', Handel T. ↓, Manu ↑,
87', Edmilson 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 1, Matko A. ⚽, Brnic I. (A),

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

Celje could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Guimarães is indisputable favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Guimarães won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:5 (average 2:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Guimarães won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
28.09.24	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:3 ✺
15.09.24	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
01.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.08.24	Zrinjski Mostar - Vitoria Guimarães	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLWWW
- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
28.09.24	NK Bravo - Celje	3:2 ✺
Slovenian Cup
25.09.24	Dravinja - Celje	0:3 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
22.09.24	Domžale - Celje	0:3 ✺
18.09.24	Celje - Maribor	2:1 ✺
15.09.24	Celje - Nafta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Celje	0:2 penalties
27.07.23	Celje - Vitoria Guimarães	3:4

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