Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Vitoria Guimarães		Porto

	1	X	2
	7	4.1	1.42	Watch
	6.9	4.25	1.44	Watch
	7.16	4.37	1.47	Watch
	6.5	4	1.44	Watch
	7.31	4.28	1.51	Watch
	6.66	4.2	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.92 ↑ (6.2)	4.2 ↑ (3.88)	1.46 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
13.5%

Draw
22.3%

Porto
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15%

24%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15%

24%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	9.5%	76.2%

Vitoria Guimarães - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Porto will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Porto (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castillo J. (G) 66. Strata T. 3. Nobrega M. 26. Abascal R. 17. Lebedenko O. 16. Beni 30. Nogueira G. 19. Camara O. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 3. Thiago Silva 4. Kiwior J. 52. Fernandes M. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 14. Duarte R. 11. Gustavo 2. Maga 6. Mitrovic M. 23. Sousa D. 28. Thiago Balieiro	5. Bednarek J. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 77. Pietuszewski O. 21. Prpic D. 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Pinto L.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Samu (Penalty Awarded),
32', Varela A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Beni 🟨,
60', Veiga G. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
60', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
65', Ndoye A. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
72', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
73', Sainz B. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
76', Camara O. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
76', Samu ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
79', Arcanjo T. 🟨,
85', 0 - 1, Varela A. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Costa A. ↓, Bednarek J. ↑,
88', Nogueira G. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
89', Beni ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
90+5', Lebedenko O. 🟨,
90+6', Pietuszewski O. 🟨,
90+9', Arcanjo T. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 1.

Guimarães is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Porto is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Moura F. (Injury) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Perez T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rosario P. (Yellow Cards) Zaidu (International duty) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Porto: Bednarek J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 16:36. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.5:1.6).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

FC Porto: 43.26% Vitoria Guimaraes: 0.51%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18:3	15	21
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Portuguese League Cup
10.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:1 ✺
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
23.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.4 WWWTL
- FC Porto
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Porto - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Santa Clara - Porto	0:1 ✺
29.12.25	Porto - AVS	2:0 ✺
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
Liga Portugal
11.08.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0
24.02.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
21.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:3
Taça de Portugal
17.04.24	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	3:1
Liga Portugal
07.04.24	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
Taça de Portugal
03.04.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:1

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