Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4


	Vitoria Guimarães		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.82	Watch
	2.48	3.2	2.82
	2.52	3.35	2.96
	2.53	3.23	2.87	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.49	3.42	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.51)	3.27 ↓ (3.36)	2.88 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
38.3%

Draw
28.9%

Famalicão
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.9%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

30.6%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Famalicão will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Charles Silva (G) 66. Strata T. 28. Thiago Balieiro 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 23. Sousa D. 11. Gustavo 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 7. Oliveira N.	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 80. Santos P. 6. Van de Looi T. 20. Sa G. (C) 23. Gil Dias 12. Elisor S. 7. Sorriso
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 19. Camara O. 25. Castillo J. (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 2. Maga 90. Ndoye A. 3. Nobrega M. 30. Nogueira G. 88. Nogueira M.	9. Abubakar U. 18. Beney R. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 28. Pedro Bondo 8. Pena M. 3. Realpe L. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Lameiras G.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, De Haas J. ⚽, Sorriso (A),
23', 1 - 1, Samu ⚽, Saviolo N. (A),
45+1', Strata T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 1 - 2, Sorriso ⚽,
62', Gustavo ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
62', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
70', Sousa D. ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
73', Santos P. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
80', Saviolo N. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
80', Beni ↓, Nogueira M. ↑,
84', Gil Dias ↓, Beney R. ↑,
90', Sorriso 🟨,
90', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
90+1', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 3.

Guimarães has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Famalicão is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) De Amorim M. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Pena M. (Injury) Rochinha (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:15. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 2.1:1.3).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Famalicao: 0.52% Vitoria Guimaraes: 0.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 38.66%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Famalicão - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 32.46%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
08.03.26	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLWL
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
06.03.26	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Rio Ave - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
23.02.26	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Famalicão - AVS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0
08.02.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
01.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	2:1
09.03.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	1:0
08.10.23	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
14.04.23	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1
31.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	3:2

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