Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 13

Date: 13 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Vitoria Guimarães		Marítimo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	4	Watch
	1.71	3.6	4.8
	2	3.2	3.85
	2	3.25	3.85
	2.01	3.39	4.24
	2	3.25	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.4	3.82	Watch
	2.03	3.3	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.53)	3.33 ↓ (3.87)	4.03 ↓ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
48.2%

Draw
28.4%

Marítimo
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

24.1%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

23.6%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitoria Guimarães's form might have worsened.

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marítimo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitoria Guimarães, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marítimo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	1.9%	9.6%

Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (46 of 52 users predict this - 88.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 97.14%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Guimarães has the most likely position - 5 (15.51%), has project points - 49, has currently - 20, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 17 (29.16%), has project points - 29, has currently - 6, has a good chance of relegated (60%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 45, small importance 27, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guimarães won 4.

Guimarães is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Marítimo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Marítimo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Guimarães is a favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Fernandes J. (Injury) Handel T. (Injury) Miguel Maga (Injury)

There will not play in Marítimo: Fabio China (Injury) Mosquera M. (Injury) Teixeira J. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Guimarães to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Last 22 head-to-head matches Guimarães won 12 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 25-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Guimarães won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Vizela	2:1 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
05.11.22	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0 ✺
31.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	3:2 ✺
23.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Boavista	3:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Canelas - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWWW
- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
06.11.22	Marítimo - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
28.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
23.10.22	Marítimo - Arouca	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Mafra - Marítimo	4:2 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
09.10.22	Boavista - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.03.22	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
22.10.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	2:1
16.05.21	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
31.01.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0
19.07.20	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0
12.01.20	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
04.03.19	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0

Upcoming Matches