Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal)

Referee: Oliveira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Marítimo		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.87
	2.4	3.15	2.95
	2.42	3.2	2.9
	2.51	3.29	3.08
	2.4	3.1	3	Watch
	2.42	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.44	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.59)	3.19 ↓ (3.24)	2.94 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marítimo
38.7%

Draw
29.4%

Arouca
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.6%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

27.1%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.6%	19%	33.3%

Marítimo - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). Arouca will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marítimo: 26.2% – 69%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 11).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 18 (34.92%), has project points - 27, has currently - 1, has a good chance of relegated (64%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Arouca has the most likely position - 14 (10.39%), has project points - 39, has currently - 12, has a small chance of relegated (15%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 41, importance 38, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 3.

Marítimo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Arouca is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 16-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Marítimo won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Mafra - Marítimo	4:2 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
09.10.22	Boavista - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
03.10.22	Marítimo - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
18.09.22	Benfica - Marítimo	5:0 ✺
11.09.22	Marítimo - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTLLL
- FC Arouca
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Fontinhas - Arouca	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.10.22	Arouca - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
02.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Arouca	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2 ✺
11.09.22	Arouca - Boavista	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
14.02.22	Arouca - Marítimo	0:3
13.09.21	Marítimo - Arouca	2:2
Club Friendly
18.07.17	Marítimo - Arouca	1:0
Liga Portugal
19.03.17	Marítimo - Arouca	3:1
30.10.16	Arouca - Marítimo	1:0
24.04.16	Marítimo - Arouca	1:2
19.12.15	Arouca - Marítimo	4:1

Upcoming Matches