Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 23 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Vitória Salvador		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.88	3.5	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.7
	2.32	2.92	3.35
	2.49	3.01	3.55
	2.39	2.74	3.57	Watch
	2.15	3	3.7
	2.34	2.93	3.75	Watch
	1.96	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.96)	2.99 ↓ (3.33)	3.64 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
41.9%

Draw
31.9%

Sport Recife
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

28.3%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória Salvador's form might have worsened.

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.2%	25%	20.8%

Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 13 - 54.2%). Recife will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitória: 34.3% – 74.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Recife (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Recife (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Vitória (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Vitória (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Recife (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 5. Lucas Halter (C) 3. Ze Marcos 66. Maykon Jesus 44. Baralhas 10. Matheuzinho 29. Willian Oliveira 22. Lucas Braga 79. Renato Kayzer 33. Erick	22. Caique Franca (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 16. Igor Carius 10. Lucas Lima 14. Rivera C. 58. Ze Lucas 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Ramirez I. 18. Derik Lacerda
Substitutes
2. Claudinho 26. Edenilson 43. Edu 23. Fabricio 76. Felipe Cardoso 35. Fintelman (G) 38. Leo Pereira 31. Lopez R. 6. Pepe 28. Ricardo Ryller 20. Rodrigues R. 8. Ronald Lopes	42. Adriano Sousa (G) 20. Atencio R. 44. Chico 19. Hyoran 3. Kevyson 61. Luiz Henrique 17. Matheusinho 7. Paciencia G. 28. Pedro Augusto 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
23', Ze Marcos 🟨,
31', Ze Lucas 🟨,
33', Chrystian Barletta 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Ramirez I. ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
46', Lucas Braga ↓, Felipe Cardoso ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Erick ⚽, Caceres R. (A),
55', Erick 🟨,
60', Erick ↓, Fabricio ↑,
69', Ze Lucas ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
69', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Hyoran ↑,
70', Matheuzinho ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
70', Renato Kayzer ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
82', Willian Oliveira ↓, Ricardo Ryller ↑,
82', Lucas Lima ↓, Romarinho ↑,
85', Baralhas 🟨,
87', Rivera C. ↓, Paciencia G. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Romarinho ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 1, Lopez R. ⚽, Ronald Lopes (A),
90+7', Lopez R. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 2, Romarinho ⚽, Matheusinho (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 3.

Recent performances by Vitória have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recife is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Vitória is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vitória: Jamerson (Ankle Injury) Neris (Muscle Injury) Osvaldo (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Injury) Pablo (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Vitória: Fabricio (Injury) Ramos R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
20.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
16.07.25	Botafogo RJ - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Internacional RS - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Vitória Salvador - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTLLT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
20.07.25	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
14.07.25	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Mirassol - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
25.05.25	Sport Recife - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
18.11.23	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	1:0
19.07.23	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	1:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
01.02.20	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
03.10.19	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	2:2
08.06.19	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	3:1
Brazilian Serie A
14.11.18	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	0:0

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