Match Info

Serie B - Round 10

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Juventude		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.28	3.15	3.57
	2.25	3.07	3.42	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.3
	2.21	3.05	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.27)	3.06 ↑ (2.92)	3.41 ↓ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
42%

Draw
30.6%

Sport Recife
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

32%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

30.7%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Juventude - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 47. Marcos Paulo 22. Nathan Santos 75. Rai Silva 8. Lucas Mineiro 16. Diogo Barbosa 11. Fabio Lima 9. Alan Kardec 10. MP	26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 4. Ze Marcos 60. Felipinho 6. Biel Fonseca 58. Ze Lucas 7. Yago Felipe 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Pedro Perotti 25. Clayson
Substitutes
13. Aderlan 25. Alisson Safira 20. Allanzinho 17. Castro M. 36. Costa K. 29. Junior C. 15. Leo Indio 26. Ly I. 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 27. Ray Breno 3. Titi 6. Wadson	68. Augusto 10. de Pena Carlos 96. Edson Lucas 47. Fabio Matheus 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 95. Iury Castilho 3. Marcelo Ajul 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 48. Pedro Martins 23. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Azevedo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Biel Fonseca 🟨,
66', MP ↓, Allanzinho ↑,
71', Biel Fonseca ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
71', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
72', Clayson ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
75', Alan Kardec ↓, Alisson Safira ↑,
76', Fabio Lima ↓, Castro M. ↑,
79', Messias 🟨,
82', 0 - 1, Iury Castilho ⚽, Chrystian Barletta (A),
83', Nathan Santos ↓, Aderlan ↑,
83', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Wadson ↑,
87', Pedro Perotti 🟨,
89', Yago Felipe ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
90+1', Felipinho 🟨,
90+4', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,
90+6', Ze Lucas 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Recife may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Juventude might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	37:19	18	59
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 3.47 are the expected chance of winning is 26.9%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Athletic Club - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Juventude - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Juventude - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Juventude - Tombense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Atlético Goianiense - Juventude	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWTWT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Sport Recife - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Ponte Preta - Sport Recife	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Sport Recife - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2
14.07.25	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.23	Juventude - Sport Recife	2:2
22.06.23	Sport Recife - Juventude	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
06.10.21	Sport Recife - Juventude	3:1
20.06.21	Juventude - Sport Recife	1:0

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