Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)


	Botafogo RJ		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.60	5.00	Watch
	1.75	3.75	4.50
	1.72	3.65	4.80	Watch
	1.79	3.77	4.99
	1.83	3.63	4.13	Watch
	1.76	3.70	4.85
	1.78	3.64	4.89	Watch
	1.78	3.65	4.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.52)	3.67 ↓ (3.88)	4.73 ↓ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
54%

Draw
25.9%

Vitória Salvador
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

23.7%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

23.6%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Botafogo RJ's form might have worsened.

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo RJ, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Botafogo RJ - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Warleson (G) 2. Vitinho 34. Justino G. 21. Marcal 13. Alex Telles (C) 75. Huguinho 6. Medina C. 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 10. Montoro A. 11. Matheus Martins 19. Arthur Cabral	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 83. Jamerson 36. Luan Candido 25. Caca 13. Ramon 44. Baralhas (C) 33. Erick 88. Ze Vitor 6. Emmanuel Martinez 10. Matheuzinho 91. Rene
Substitutes
14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 8. Danilo Santos 63. da Silva Neves H. G. 88. Edenilson 12. Gabriel Batista (G) 79. Jales do Nascimento L. E. 59. Kauan Toledo 33. Monzon L. 29. Paulinho 4. Ponte M. 23. Rodriguez S.	2. Britez E. 95. Caique Goncalves 26. Edenilson 70. Fabiano 23. Fabricio 7. Marinho 98. Matheusinho 8. Pochettino T. 79. Renato Kayzer 12. Tarzia D. 15. Walace 71. Yuri (G)
Coaches
Carvalho F.	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rene ↓, Renato Kayzer ↑,
46', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Caique Goncalves ↑,
66', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Danilo Santos ↑,
66', Matheus Martins ↓, Jales do Nascimento L. E. ↑,
66', Matheuzinho ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
78', Ze Vitor ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
79', Huguinho ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
79', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
79', Arthur Cabral ↓, Barria K. ↑,
87', Erick ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
90+2', Ponte M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 2.

Botafogo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Vitória has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Botafogo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Botafogo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Allan (Injury) Correa J. (Muscle Injury) Kaio Pantaleao (Inactive) Marcal (Knee Injury) Ramos C. (Knock) Rodriguez S. (Injury)

There will not play in Vitória: Claudinho (Knee Injury) Edu (Injury) Fintelman (Hip Injury) Lopez R. (Injury) Ramos R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 1.2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
16.07.26	Botafogo RJ - Santos	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.07.26	Dynamo Moscow - Botafogo RJ	Canceled ✺
04.07.26	CSKA Moscow - Botafogo RJ	Canceled ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Caracas - Botafogo RJ	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 W??LW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
16.07.26	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.06.26	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
02.06.26	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Santos - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	ABC - Vitória Salvador	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.11.25	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	0:0
16.07.25	Botafogo RJ - Vitória Salvador	0:0
23.11.24	Botafogo RJ - Vitória Salvador	1:1
11.07.24	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	0:1
Copa do Brasil
22.05.24	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	1:2
02.05.24	Botafogo RJ - Vitória Salvador	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
29.09.21	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	0:0

Upcoming Matches