Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 11

Date: 11 November 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV4


	Vizela		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.31	3.3	3.4
	2.33	3.3	3.39
	2.15	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.27	3.2	3.32	Watch
	2.3	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.65)	3.2 ↑ (2.95)	3.33 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
42%

Draw
29.6%

Famalicão
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

31.2%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

31.7%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vizela's performance.

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Famalicão might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vizela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Famalicão could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	47.4%	52.6%

Vizela - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 47.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Buntic F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 3. Wilson Valdez B. R. 5. Anderson Jesus 25. Escoval R. 34. Ortiz P. 20. Samu (C) 17. Lacava M. 90. Nascimento D. 79. Moreira N. 99. Essende S.	31. Luiz Junior (G) 22. Nathan 13. Otavio 15. Riccieli (C) 74. Moura F. 8. Topic M. 28. Youssouf Z. 10. Chiquinho 20. Gustavo Sa 7. Puma 9. Araujo H.
Substitutes
22. Busnic A. 7. Jardel 19. Lebedenko O. 6. Matheus Pereira 8. Mendez A. 23. Rashid O. 1. Ruberto F. (G) 14. Saint-Louis D. 29. Soro A.	32. Aguirregabiria M. 11. Aranda O. 12. Assuncao G. A. 29. Cadiz J. 16. De Haas J. 23. Dobre A. 6. Lacoux T. 77. Pablo 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Villar P.	Sousa J. P.

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vizela won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Vizela won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
05.11.23	Casa Pia - Vizela	0:1 ✺
29.10.23	Vizela - Porto	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.10.23	Atlético CP - Vizela	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.10.23	Farense - Vizela	0:0 ✺
30.09.23	Vizela - Portimonense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWTL
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
04.11.23	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
29.10.23	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
08.10.23	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
30.09.23	Boavista - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
22.09.23	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.05.23	Vizela - Famalicão	0:0
06.01.23	Famalicão - Vizela	2:1
18.03.22	Vizela - Famalicão	1:1
31.10.21	Famalicão - Vizela	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.17	Famalicão - Vizela	2:0
11.12.16	Vizela - Famalicão	3:2

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