Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 10

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Warrington Town		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.30	2.35
	2.52	3.3	2.38
	2.63	3.52	2.36
	2.59	3.87	2.35	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.3
	2.65	3.78	2.43
	2.5	3.3	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.38)	3.5 ↑ (3.2)	2.36 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warrington Town
35.4%

Draw
26.1%

Gainsborough Trinity
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

27.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

25.8%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warrington Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warrington Town than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gainsborough Trinity, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Warrington won 0.

Warrington has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Gainsborough has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Gainsborough may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Warrington has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:11 (averaging 1.2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Warrington against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 6:6 goals (averaging 1.2:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Warrington	10	5	3	2	20:16	4	18
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20:14	6	16

Last Results with these Odds

Warrington Town - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 36.99%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warrington Town
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	United of Manchester - Warrington Town	4:1 ✺
01.09.26	Leek Town - Warrington Town	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Warrington Town - Emley	2:2 ✺
25.08.26	Warrington Town - Curzon Ashton	0:4 ✺
22.08.26	Whitby Town - Warrington Town	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWTLW
- Gainsborough Trinity
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Bury - Gainsborough Trinity	4:3 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
22.09.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Leamington	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Leamington - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Avro	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Cleethorpes Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
06.12.25	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3
06.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Warrington Town	2:0
01.04.23	Gainsborough Trinity - Warrington Town	1:1
11.10.22	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2
11.12.21	Gainsborough Trinity - Warrington Town	1:1
11.09.21	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0
26.09.20	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	3:0

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