Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 14

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Gainsborough Trinity		Ilkeston

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.40	6.25
	1.46	3.80	5.30
	1.36	5.11	6.15
	1.39	5.1	6.4	Watch
	1.35	5.05	6.05
	1.44	4.41	6.73
	1.39	4.50	6.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.55)	4.62 ↑ (3.6)	6.18 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainsborough Trinity
65.5%

Draw
19.8%

Ilkeston
14.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.8%

24.5%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

22.4%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gainsborough Trinity's performance.

Ilkeston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gainsborough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Mulhern E. F. (Penalty Awarded),
10', 1 - 1, Dwyer A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 2 - 1, Kokkinos R. ⚽,
90+5', 3 - 1, Ashton O. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 9th and 21st in the Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 1.

In recent outings, Gainsborough has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ilkeston has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Ilkeston may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gainsborough enters as the overwhelming favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Gainsborough has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 0.5:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gainsborough against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals (averaging 0:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31:20	11	28
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10:34	-24	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
10.10.26	Emley - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2 ✺
06.10.26	Whitby Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:6 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Anstey Nomads	2:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Bury - Gainsborough Trinity	4:3 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
22.09.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Leamington	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLW
- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
10.10.26	Ilkeston - Redcar Athletic	0:5 ✺
06.10.26	Ilkeston - Guiseley	0:2 ✺
03.10.26	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Ilkeston - Warrington Rylands	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Workington - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
20.12.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:0
12.08.25	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	0:1
04.03.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:0
10.08.24	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	2:2
09.12.23	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:1
15.08.23	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	4:0

Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston