Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 23

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday


	Gainsborough Trinity		Ilkeston

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.3	3.45
	1.95	3.56	3.28
	1.96	3.78	3.38	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.5
	1.9	3.32	3.66
	1.96	3.5	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.71)	3.45 ↓ (3.78)	3.45 ↓ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainsborough Trinity
47.1%

Draw
26.4%

Ilkeston
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

24.6%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

24%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainsborough Trinity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gainsborough Trinity's form might have worsened.

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilkeston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gainsborough Trinity, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilkeston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 and 18).

Recent performances by Gainsborough have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ilkeston is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ilkeston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gainsborough is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gainsborough won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
13.12.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Stocksbridge Park Steels	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
02.12.25	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1 ✺
25.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Hebburn Town	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Prescot Cables - Gainsborough Trinity	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWTLT
- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
13.12.25	Ilkeston - Hednesford Town	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	United of Manchester - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Ilkeston - Stocksbridge Park Steels	0:1 ✺
18.11.25	Hebburn Town - Ilkeston	5:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Ilkeston - Curzon Ashton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
12.08.25	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	0:1
04.03.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:0
10.08.24	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	2:2
09.12.23	Gainsborough Trinity - Ilkeston	0:1
15.08.23	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	4:0

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