Match Info

ENGLAND: National League North - Round 36

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday


	Alfreton Town		Warrington Town

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	4.75
	1.55	3.7	5.2
	1.54	3.9	6.3
	1.56	3.91	5.97
	1.53	3.94	5.71
	1.55	3.7	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.86)	3.86 ↑ (3.49)	5.52 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
59.5%

Draw
23.8%

Warrington Town
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

26.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

20.5%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alfreton Town's performance.

Warrington Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Warrington Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-21.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alfreton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warrington Town than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Warrington Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alfreton Town - Warrington Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Clackstone J. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
62', 2 - 0, Osborne S. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, Amis J. ⚽,
84', 2 - 2, Amis J. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 16 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Alfreton is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Warrington has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Warrington could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Alfreton have a series of guest games.

In this match Alfreton is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Alfreton won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Alfreton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
25.02.25	South Shields - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0 ✺
18.02.25	Spennymoor Town - Alfreton Town	3:1 ✺
15.02.25	Alfreton Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:2 ✺
08.02.25	Scarborough Athletic - Alfreton Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLLW
- Warrington Town
English National League North
25.02.25	Warrington Town - Scarborough Athletic	0:2 ✺
22.02.25	Warrington Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
18.02.25	Hereford - Warrington Town	3:2 ✺
11.02.25	Leamington - Warrington Town	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Warrington Town - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
09.11.24	Warrington Town - Alfreton Town	0:1
13.01.24	Warrington Town - Alfreton Town	2:2
07.10.23	Alfreton Town - Warrington Town	1:1

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