Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday


	Warrington Town		Workington

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.40	3.00
	2.12	3.35	2.8
	2.21	3.61	2.66
	2.23	3.82	2.79	Watch
	2.16	3.5	2.6
	2.18	3.5	2.75
	2.14	3.45	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.17)	3.52 ↓ (3.6)	2.77 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warrington Town
41.9%

Draw
25.6%

Workington
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

25.8%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warrington Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Workington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warrington Town than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Workington than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Warrington Town - Workington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Carroll B. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Edwards C. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, Bange E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
75', 2 - 2, Dickenson B. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 7th in the Promotion - NPL Premier Division Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 4th in the Promotion - NPL Premier Division Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Warrington won 2.

Warrington is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Workington is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Workington may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Warrington has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:11 (averaging 1.4:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Warrington against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 6:6 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23:19	4	21
9	Warrington	10	5	3	2	20:16	4	18

Last Results with these Odds

Warrington Town - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.76%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warrington Town
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Marine - Warrington Town	2:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	United of Manchester - Warrington Town	4:1 ✺
01.09.26	Leek Town - Warrington Town	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Warrington Town - Emley	2:2 ✺
25.08.26	Warrington Town - Curzon Ashton	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWTL
- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
03.10.26	Workington - Cleethorpes Town	1:1 ✺
29.09.26	Emley - Workington	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Bury - Workington	5:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Workington - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Lancaster City - Workington	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.04.26	Warrington Town - Workington	2:3
22.11.25	Workington - Warrington Town	1:1
26.02.19	Workington - Warrington Town	0:2
04.09.18	Warrington Town - Workington	2:0
27.03.18	Warrington Town - Workington	1:1
05.09.17	Workington - Warrington Town	1:1
11.02.17	Workington - Warrington Town	3:1

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