Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday


	Warrington Town		Leek Town

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.35	3.05
	1.98	3.66	3.45	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.3
	2.12	3.34	3.11
	1.93	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.96)	3.45 ↑ (3.35)	3.26 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warrington Town
45.5%

Draw
26.5%

Leek Town
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

27.1%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

25.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warrington Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Leek Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warrington Town than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Warrington Town - Leek Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Harris J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Shenton O. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 18).

Warrington has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leek has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Leek has had a series of away games.

Warrington will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Warrington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Warrington	10	5	3	2	20:16	4	18
17	Leek	11	2	4	5	22:23	-1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leek Town - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 26.5%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warrington Town
English NPL Premier Division
26.12.25	Warrington Rylands - Warrington Town	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Warrington Town - Hednesford Town	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Rushall Olympic - Warrington Town	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Warrington Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Warrington Town - Morpeth Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TTWLT
- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
26.12.25	Leek Town - Stocksbridge Park Steels	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Rushall Olympic - Leek Town	5:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Southport - Leek Town	3:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
06.12.25	Guiseley - Leek Town	1:0 ✺
02.12.25	Stockton Town - Leek Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
25.08.25	Leek Town - Warrington Town	3:1

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