Match Info

POLAND: Division 1 - Round 17

Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Respect Energy Stadium (Grodzisk Wielkopolski)

Referee: Lewandowski L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Warta Poznań		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.9
	2.25	3.3	2.85
	2.3	3.4	2.9	Watch
	2.35	3.54	2.92
	2.31	3.47	2.9	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.8
	2.3	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.04)	3.39 ↓ (3.48)	2.88 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warta Poznań
40.4%

Draw
27.4%

Pogoń Siedlce
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

26.8%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

26.3%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warta Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Warta Poznań's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Siedlce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Warta Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Siedlce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Warta Poznań - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Warta will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Pogoń Siedlce will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Warta: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Przybylak L. (G) 34. Plesnierowicz W. 4. Wojcinowicz T. 37. Gryszkiewicz A. 20. Szeliga B. 15. Kopczynski M. (C) 5. Tkachuk Y. 29. Mackowiak M. 9. Firlej M. 21. Adamski R. 10. Zurawski M.	23. Pruchniewski M. (G) 14. Burka D. 55. Cassio 31. Dzieciol E. 77. Pik D. 8. Sinior J. 4. Drag M. 2. Mis K. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 99. Podlinski K. 56. Demianiuk C.
Substitutes
2. Bartkowski J. 7. Gaska D. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 35. Jakubowski F. 3. Kielb J. 44. Markov I. 26. Michalski K. 23. Pawlowski S. 27. Przybylko K.	43. Hrnciar L. 47. Krzyzak O. 9. Lutostanski J. 11. Majewski M. 3. Majewski R. 26. Okusami J. 10. Pyrdol P. 95. Topor E. (G) 17. Zinkevych O.
Coaches
Klepczarek P.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Demianiuk C. ↓, Majewski M. ↑,
14', 0 - 1, Majewski M. ⚽, Burka D. (A),
22', Firlej M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mackowiak M. ↓, Kielb J. ↑,
46', Kopczynski M. ↓, Gaska D. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Kielb J. ⚽, Szeliga B. (A),
56', 2 - 1, Wojcinowicz T. ⚽, Adamski R. (A),
61', Drag M. ↓, Hrnciar L. ↑,
65', Gryszkiewicz A. ↓, Markov I. ↑,
73', Zurawski M. ↓, Michalski K. ↑,
74', Wojcinowicz T. 🟨,
84', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Zinkevych O. ↑,
90+4', Firlej M. ↓, Pawlowski S. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Recent matches Warta is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Pogoń Siedlce is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Warta will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warta Poznań
Polish Division 1
09.11.24	Odra Opole - Warta Poznań	0:0 ✺
03.11.24	Warta Poznań - Chrobry Głogów	1:0 ✺
Polish Cup
31.10.24	Warta Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	0:3 ✺
Polish Division 1
25.10.24	Ruch Chorzów - Warta Poznań	2:1 ✺
19.10.24	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Warta Poznań	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLLW
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
08.11.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	2:1 ✺
03.11.24	Miedź Legnica - Pogoń Siedlce	4:1 ✺
26.10.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1 ✺
05.10.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Wisła Kraków	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTLL

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