Match Info

ENGLAND: FA TROPHY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday


	Welling United		Chesterfield

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.6	2.1
	3.5	3.5	1.85
	1.52	4.68	4.18
	1.55	4.64	4.07
	2.9	3.75	1.95
	2.47	3.8	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (3.33)	4 ↑ (3.65)	2.75 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Welling United
40.2%

Draw
24.4%

Chesterfield
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

25.1%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

24.5%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Welling United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Welling United's performance.

Chesterfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chesterfield might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Welling United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chesterfield could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Welling United - Chesterfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Welling will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Chesterfield will win (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Welling: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Welling has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Chesterfield is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Chesterfield will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Welling United
English National League South
06.01.24	Welling United - Aveley	1:3 ✺
30.12.23	Dartford - Welling United	1:1 ✺
26.12.23	Welling United - Dartford	0:1 ✺
23.12.23	Bath City - Welling United	4:0 ✺
16.12.23	Welling United - Eastbourne Borough	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLLL
- Chesterfield
English National League
10.01.24	Chesterfield - Gateshead	5:0 ✺
English FA Cup
06.01.24	Watford - Chesterfield	2:1 ✺
English National League
01.01.24	Chesterfield - Solihull Moors	3:2 ✺
26.12.23	Solihull Moors - Chesterfield	2:0 ✺
23.12.23	Chesterfield - Aldershot Town	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLW

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