Match Info

Date: 3 October 2020, Saturday


	Werder Bremen		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3.3
	2.1	3.55	3.4
	2.12	3.5	3.3
	2.19	3.66	3.41
	2.15	3.5	3.3
	2.18	3.6	3.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.13)	3.56 ↑ (3.5)	3.37 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Werder Bremen
44.7%

Draw
26.9%

Arminia Bielefeld
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

27.1%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

18.4%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Arminia Bielefeld has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Werder Bremen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arminia Bielefeld could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66%	7.5%	26.4%

Werder Bremen - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Werder will win (votes: 35 - 66%). Arminia will win (votes: 14 - 26.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Werder: 53.2% – 78.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Werder has a chance of relegated (16%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Arminia has a chance of relegated (29%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Werder is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Arminia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Werder will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Werder won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Werder won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
26.09.20	Schalke 04 - Werder Bremen	1:3 ✺
19.09.20	Werder Bremen - Hertha Berlin	1:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
12.09.20	Carl Zeiss Jena - Werder Bremen	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.20	Werder Bremen - Hannover	2:0
29.08.20	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:0
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWWW
- Arminia Bielefeld
German Bundesliga
26.09.20	Arminia Bielefeld - Köln	1:0 ✺
19.09.20	Eintracht Frankfurt - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
14.09.20	Rot-Weiß Essen - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.09.20	Groningen - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1 ✺
02.09.20	Arminia Bielefeld - Duisburg	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.10.18	Werder Bremen - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1
27.07.18	Arminia Bielefeld - Werder Bremen	0:1
German DFB Pokal
04.03.15	Arminia Bielefeld - Werder Bremen	3:1

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