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Werder Bremen - St. Pauli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 6
  • Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday
  • Location: Weserstadion (Bremen)
  • Referee: Storks S. (Ger)
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    Werder Bremen St. Pauli
    Werder Bremen St. Pauli
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.24 ↑
    (2.22)    		 3.66 ↓
    (3.85)    		 3.9 ↑
    (3.09)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Werder Bremen
    45.8%    		Draw
    28%    		St. Pauli
    26.3%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    43.6% 25.1% 31.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    44.6% 25.7% 30.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    30.3% 18.2% 51.5%

    Werder Bremen - St. Pauli Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Werder will win (votes: 10 - 30.3%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 17 - 51.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 34.4% – 68.6%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Werder (1.73) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • AH 0, 1st Half - Werder (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): St. Pauli will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 18.2%). St. Pauli (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. EstoniaHein K. (G)
      3. JapanSugawara Y.
    32. AustriaFriedl M. (C)
    31. GermanyCoulibaly K.
    27. NigeriaAgu F.
      6. DenmarkStage J.
    14. BelgiumLynen S.
    20. AustriaSchmid R.
    18. SpainPuertas C.
      7. BelgiumMbangula S.
    11. GermanyNjinmah J.
    		22. BosniaVasilj N. (G)
      5. GermanyWahl H.
      8. SwedenSmith E. (C)
    21. GermanyRitzka L.
    11. PolandPyrka A.
      6. USASands J.
    16. JapanFujita J.
    23. GermanyOppie L.
    10. LuxembourgSinani D.
    19. NetherlandsKaars M.
    28. FrancePereira Lage M.
    Substitutes
    28. FranceAlvero S.
    10. GermanyBittencourt L.
    44. NigeriaBoniface V.
    24. CroatiaCovic P.
    17. AustriaGrull M.
    25. GermanyKolke M. (G)
      5. GermanyPieper A.
    23. SwitzerlandSchmidt I.
      9. GermanyTopp K.
    		17. EnglandAfolayan O.
    20. SwedenAhlstrand E.
      9. GambiaCeesay A.
    25. PolandDzwigala A.
    24. AustraliaMetcalfe C.
      3. EstoniaMets K.
      2. GreeceSaliakas M.
    14. WalesStevens F.
      1. GermanyVoll B. A. (G)
    Coaches
         GermanySteffen H.
    		     GermanyBlessin A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 2', 1 - 0, Mbangula S. ⚽,
    • 45', Agu F. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 60', Njinmah J. ↓, Grull M. ↑,
    • 68', Puertas C. 🟨,
    • 71', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
    • 71', Ritzka L. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
    • 71', Sands J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
    • 73', Stage J. 🟨,
    • 81', Puertas C. ↓, Covic P. ↑,
    • 81', Mbangula S. ↓, Boniface V. ↑,
    • 90', Grull M. 🟨,

    Preview

  • The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder won 1.
  • Recent form of Werder has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • St. Pauli has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Werder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
  • There will not play in Werder: Backhaus M. (Shoulder Injury) Deman O. (Ankle Injury) Stark N. (Hip Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Thigh Injury)
  • There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
  • There are questionable in Werder: Malatini J. (Ankle Injury)
  • There are questionable in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Werder won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.3:1.4).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Werder won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Werder Bremen
    German Bundesliga
    26.09.25 Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen 4:0 ✺
    20.09.25 Werder Bremen - Freiburg 0:3 ✺
    14.09.25 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Werder Bremen 0:4 ✺
    30.08.25 Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 ✺
    23.08.25 Eintracht Frankfurt - Werder Bremen 4:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1
    LLWTL
    - FC St. Pauli
    German Bundesliga
    27.09.25 St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 ✺
    19.09.25 Stuttgart - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺
    14.09.25 St. Pauli - Augsburg 2:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    03.09.25 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    29.08.25 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9
    LLWTW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    27.04.25 Werder Bremen - St. Pauli 0:0
    14.12.24 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 0:2
    German 2 Bundesliga
    09.04.22 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 1:1
    30.10.21 Werder Bremen - St. Pauli 1:1
    Club Friendly
    13.11.20 Werder Bremen - St. Pauli 2:4
    07.10.20 Werder Bremen - St. Pauli 4:1
    29.08.20 Werder Bremen - St. Pauli 1:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Werder Bremen
    German Bundesliga
    09.10.26 Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen ✺
    - FC St. Pauli
    German 2 Bundesliga
    11.10.26 St. Pauli - Karlsruher ✺

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