Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 14

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday


	Weston-super-Mare		Aveley

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.7	4.2
	1.7	3.75	4.5
	1.75	3.8	4.34
	1.67	3.91	4.71	Watch
	1.71	3.76	4.31
	1.7	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.48)	3.78 ↓ (4.1)	4.43 ↓ (6.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Weston-super-Mare
54.6%

Draw
24.5%

Aveley
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

22.5%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

21.5%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Weston-super-Mare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Weston-super-Mare's form might have worsened.

Aveley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aveley's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Weston-super-Mare than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Weston-super-Mare, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aveley than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aveley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Weston super Mare - Aveley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Owen T. ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Pearson S. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
64', 2 - 1, Pearson S. ⚽,
76', 3 - 1, Avery S. ⚽,
84', 4 - 1, Kadji D. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Weston-super-Mare is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Aveley is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aveley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Weston-super-Mare is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Weston-super-Mare to win the game is with odds 1.62.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Weston-super-Mare won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Weston-super-Mare won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Weston-super-Mare
English National League South
22.10.24	Salisbury - Weston-super-Mare	0:2 ✺
19.10.24	Weston-super-Mare - Boreham Wood	0:0 ✺
05.10.24	Welling United - Weston-super-Mare	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
01.10.24	Weston-super-Mare - Chippenham Town	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Chippenham Town - Weston-super-Mare	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTWWT
- Aveley
English National League South
19.10.24	Enfield Town - Aveley	2:4 ✺
12.10.24	Aveley - Chippenham Town	0:1 ✺
05.10.24	Farnborough - Aveley	2:0 ✺
21.09.24	Aveley - Truro City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
14.09.24	Aveley - Royston Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
13.04.24	Weston-super-Mare - Aveley	1:2
04.11.23	Aveley - Weston-super-Mare	2:0

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