Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 10

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Turnbull Ground (Whitby)


	Whitby Town		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.30	2.25
	2.60	3.10	2.32
	2.65	3.61	2.28
	2.76	3.67	2.3	Watch
	2.60	3.55	2.25
	2.76	3.81	2.36
	2.75	3.40	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.6)	3.49 ↑ (3.05)	2.29 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Whitby Town
34%

Draw
26.1%

Lancaster City
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

28.7%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

26.9%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Whitby Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Whitby Town than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Whitby Town - Lancaster City Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Whitby will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Lancaster will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Rose S. ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Craig J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 1 - 2, Bailey C. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 12th and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Whitby won 2.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Lancaster may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Whitby has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:26 (averaging 1:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Whitby against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 7:15 goals (averaging 1:2.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16
15	Whitby	11	4	0	7	17:32	-15	12

Last Results with these Odds

Whitby Town - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 33.69%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Whitby Town
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Hyde United - Whitby Town	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Whitby Town - Alfreton Town	1:4 ✺
29.08.26	Quorn - Whitby Town	3:6 ✺
25.08.26	Cleethorpes Town - Whitby Town	6:0 ✺
22.08.26	Whitby Town - Warrington Town	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLWLL
- Lancaster City
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Cleethorpes Town - Lancaster City	5:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Lancaster City - Curzon Ashton	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Lancaster City - Workington	0:3 ✺
28.08.26	Guiseley - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
25.08.26	Bury - Lancaster City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
14.03.26	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	1:3
01.11.25	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	0:0
05.04.25	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	0:1
30.11.24	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	3:0
27.02.24	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	1:1
28.11.23	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	2:1
25.02.23	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	2:0

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