Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Challenge League - Round 34

Date: 9 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Lidl Arena (Wil)

Referee: Qovanaj H. (Ita)


	Wil 1900		Baden

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.4	5.5
	1.42	4.75	6
	1.45	4.82	6.42
	1.44	4.82	6.42
	1.4	4.4	6
	1.43	4.6	6.16	Watch
	1.4	4.4	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.53)	4.6 ↑ (4.34)	6.06 ↑ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wil 1900
64.8%

Draw
20%

Baden
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

21.5%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

16.2%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wil 1900 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Baden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wil 1900 than the current prediction. (-19%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wil 1900 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baden than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baden could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Wil 1900 - Baden Predictions

Users Predictions: Wil 1900 will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Laidani A. (G) 29. Dickenmann M. 5. Montolio G. 14. Altmann P. 8. Brahimi M. 11. Gele J. 18. Cueni S. 20. Ndau K. (C) 7. Haile-Selassie K. 19. Muci N. 22. Maier N.	18. Mossi A. (G) 43. Gloor F. 8. Franek C. (C) 2. Pachonik T. 13. Fontana J. 10. Laski R. 44. Hanke M. 6. Cirelli S. 26. Furrer G. 27. Giampa D. 22. Romano D.
Substitutes
24. Borges F. 38. Buljan L. 1. Chande G. (G) 2. Dantas R. 6. Geiger S. 4. Jacovic D. 23. Martic I. 9. Navarro J. 17. Staubli T.	14. Brack J. 30. D'Ovidio G. (G) 15. Dzonlagic O. 5. Isufi E. 29. Kujovic A. 23. Spielmann M. 3. Weilenmann Y. 11. Wiskemann M. 7. Zumberi L.
Coaches
Iacopetta B.	Winsauer M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Muci N. ⚽, Ndau K. (A),
31', 1 - 1, Montolio G. (Own goal),
32', Ndau K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 2 - 1, Ndau K. ⚽,
51', Pachonik T. 🟨,
57', Cirelli S. ↓, Kujovic A. ↑,
57', Furrer G. ↓, Dzonlagic O. ↑,
60', Ndau K. ↓, Jacovic D. ↑,
62', Pachonik T. ↓, Isufi E. ↑,
68', Haile-Selassie K. ↓, Borges F. ↑,
68', Gele J. ↓, Staubli T. ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Altmann P. ⚽,
74', Romano D. ↓, Spielmann M. ↑,
74', Hanke M. ↓, Zumberi L. ↑,
76', Montolio G. 🟨,
84', Montolio G. ↓, Geiger S. ↑,
84', Maier N. ↓, Buljan L. ↑,
90+1', Muci N. 🟨,

Preview

Wil is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Baden has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Wil is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Wil won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Wil won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wil 1900
Swiss Challenge League
03.05.24	Sion - Wil 1900	4:0 ✺
27.04.24	Wil 1900 - Schaffhausen	0:1 ✺
23.04.24	Neuchâtel Xamax - Wil 1900	2:2 ✺
20.04.24	Vaduz - Wil 1900	3:1 ✺
14.04.24	Wil 1900 - Stade Nyonnais	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLT
- FC Baden
Swiss Challenge League
03.05.24	Baden - Thun	1:5 ✺
27.04.24	Vaduz - Baden	6:0 ✺
23.04.24	Baden - Aarau	0:1 ✺
19.04.24	Bellinzona - Baden	4:0 ✺
13.04.24	Baden - Sion	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
30.03.24	Baden - Wil 1900	2:1
27.10.23	Wil 1900 - Baden	0:1
27.08.23	Baden - Wil 1900	0:5

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