Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Challenge League - Round 31

Date: 23 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Esp Stadium (Fislisbach)

Referee: Scharli D. (Sui)


	Baden		Aarau

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	1.93
	3.2	3.75	2	Watch
	3.32	3.85	2.06
	3.32	3.85	2.04
	3	3.7	1.95
	3.22	3.78	1.99	Watch
	3.15	3.65	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↓ (3.57)	3.74 ↓ (3.91)	1.99 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baden
29%

Draw
24.7%

Aarau
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

24%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

24.5%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baden than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Baden - Aarau Predictions

Users Predictions: Aarau will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Spycher T. (G) 43. Gloor F. 2. Pachonik T. 8. Franek C. (C) 4. Muff P. 22. Romano D. 44. Hanke M. 10. Laski R. 7. Zumberi L. 27. Giampa D. 23. Spielmann M.	1. Hubel M. (G) 38. Kessler R. 4. Hasani B. 2. Thaler M. 3. Conus B. 11. Avdyli M. 8. Jackle O. (C) 70. Pappoe I. 10. Fazliu V. 9. Demhasaj S. 23. Gjorgjev N.
Substitutes
14. Brack J. 6. Cirelli S. 15. Dzonlagic O. 13. Fontana J. 26. Furrer G. 5. Isufi E. 29. Kujovic A. 18. Mossi A. (G) 11. Wiskemann M.	44. Acquah D. 25. Derbaci D. 30. Hirzel A. (G) 17. Koide H. 16. Krasniqi S. 22. Qollaku A. 19. Schwegler S. 77. Theler S. 29. Wetz N.
Coaches
Winsauer M.	Jakovljevic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Romano D. 🟨,
37', Spielmann M. 🟨,
37', Zumberi L. ↓, Kujovic A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', Avdyli M. 🟨,
66', Franek C. 🟨,
66', Hasani B. 🟨,
69', 0 - 1, Gjorgjev N. ⚽, Fazliu V. (A),
71', Hanke M. ↓, Fontana J. ↑,
71', Romano D. ↓, Dzonlagic O. ↑,
82', Pachonik T. ↓, Furrer G. ↑,
82', Giampa D. ↓, Wiskemann M. ↑,
85', Avdyli M. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
88', Fazliu V. 🟨,
90', Pappoe I. 🟨,
90+1', Pappoe I. ↓, Schwegler S. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Baden won 0.

Baden is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Aarau is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aarau will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Baden won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Baden won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Baden
Swiss Challenge League
19.04.24	Bellinzona - Baden	4:0 ✺
13.04.24	Baden - Sion	0:3 ✺
05.04.24	Stade Nyonnais - Baden	1:0 ✺
30.03.24	Baden - Wil 1900	2:1 ✺
16.03.24	Aarau - Baden	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLLWL
- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
19.04.24	Aarau - Thun	3:0 ✺
12.04.24	Neuchâtel Xamax - Aarau	3:1 ✺
06.04.24	Aarau - Schaffhausen	1:2 ✺
29.03.24	Bellinzona - Aarau	5:2 ✺
16.03.24	Aarau - Baden	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
16.03.24	Aarau - Baden	2:0
30.01.24	Baden - Aarau	1:2
21.07.23	Aarau - Baden	1:0
Club Friendly
21.01.20	Aarau - Baden	3:0
09.07.19	Baden - Aarau	2:3
08.07.15	Aarau - Baden	8:2

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