Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Challenge League - Round 33

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Location: Esp Stadium (Fislisbach)

Referee: Jaussi J. (Sui)


	Baden		Thun

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.33	1.41
	6	4.75	1.42	Watch
	6.05	4.7	1.47
	6.73	4.83	1.43
	6.5	4.6	1.36
	6.41	4.7	1.41	Watch
	5.9	4.4	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.19 ↑ (5.69)	4.62 ↑ (4.59)	1.41 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baden
14.9%

Draw
20%

Thun
65.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

20.3%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

19.8%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baden than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Baden - Thun Predictions

Users Predictions: Thun will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Spycher T. (G) 2. Pachonik T. 8. Franek C. (C) 4. Muff P. 13. Fontana J. 6. Cirelli S. 44. Hanke M. 29. Kujovic A. 15. Dzonlagic O. 22. Romano D. 27. Giampa D.	38. Matic M. (G) 37. Dahler L. 34. Sutter N. 23. Burki M. (C) 18. Djacko K. 78. Matoshi V. 8. Janjicic V. 16. Roth J. 27. Dos Santos D. 33. Gutbub M. 20. Kone K.
Substitutes
14. Brack J. 28. Eraslan E. 26. Furrer G. 43. Gloor F. 5. Isufi E. 18. Mossi A. (G) 19. Tushi T. 11. Wiskemann M. 7. Zumberi L.	36. Asani E. 7. Castroman M. 30. Dushica L. 24. Ndongo R. 10. Sacko I. 46. Sessolo H. 17. Toggenburger N. 21. Vasic U. 22. Ziswiler N. (G)
Coaches
Winsauer M.	Lustrinelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', Fontana J. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Hanke M. ⚽, Romano D. (A),
21', Muff P. 🟨,
24', 1 - 1, Kone K. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
34', 1 - 2, Kone K. ⚽, Djacko K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', 1 - 3, Kone K. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
60', Cirelli S. ↓, Furrer G. ↑,
60', Romano D. ↓, Brack J. ↑,
67', Kone K. ↓, Sacko I. ↑,
67', Gutbub M. ↓, Castroman M. ↑,
74', Dzonlagic O. ↓, Zumberi L. ↑,
75', Hanke M. ↓, Wiskemann M. ↑,
75', 1 - 4, Janjicic V. ⚽,
78', 1 - 5, Sacko I. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
80', Dos Santos D. ↓, Toggenburger N. ↑,
80', Matoshi V. ↓, Sessolo H. ↑,
80', Giampa D. ↓, Gloor F. ↑,
83', Janjicic V. ↓, Asani E. ↑,
87', Burki M. 🟨,

Preview

Baden has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Thun is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Thun is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Thun to win the game is with odds 1.42.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Baden won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Baden won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Baden
Swiss Challenge League
27.04.24	Vaduz - Baden	6:0 ✺
23.04.24	Baden - Aarau	0:1 ✺
19.04.24	Bellinzona - Baden	4:0 ✺
13.04.24	Baden - Sion	0:3 ✺
05.04.24	Stade Nyonnais - Baden	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Thun
Swiss Challenge League
27.04.24	Stade Nyonnais - Thun	0:0 ✺
22.04.24	Thun - Sion	1:0 ✺
19.04.24	Aarau - Thun	3:0 ✺
13.04.24	Thun - Bellinzona	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	Thun - Neuchâtel Xamax	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
02.03.24	Thun - Baden	3:1
16.12.23	Baden - Thun	0:2
04.08.23	Thun - Baden	6:0

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